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Antony Heath 14th Oct 2012 - 11:31

Sunday live NFL

Lions @ Eagles | 18:00 - live on Sky Sports 4

The live coverage kicks-off with what should be an interesting match-up at the Lincoln Financial Field in Philly as the 1-3 Lions, who have been quite probably the biggest disappointment of 2012, head to face the 3-2 Eagles who despite their winning record have plenty of room for improvement.

The Lions (33/20) bye week came just at the right time as they were able to take a step back and try to work out what's been going wrong for them this season. Their only win came in the opening week against the St Louis Rams, that win came in the last seconds but they were expected to win in comfortable fashion. The Lions are 0-4 against the spread this season and are +3.5 for this (10/11) which I expect them to cover in a narrow loss.

The biggest surprise for the Lions is that Matt Stafford hasn't been able to connect with Calvin Johnson (6/1 First/Last, 4/6 Anytime) on a TD pass but after an extended change to work on plays I think he looks great value to open the scoring.

The Eagles (10/19) are looking to bounce back from the loss to the Steelers in week 5 and this will all swing on how well Michael Vick holds on to the ball. He has fumbled eight times through five games, including losing a fumble on the 1 yard line against the Steelers last week, he hasn't thrown an interception in three games after throwing six through his first two games and that step forward has to be done with his handling.

The Detroit defence has allowed just 5 passing TD's and so LeSean McCoy (11/2 First/Last, 8/15 Anytime) will be called on to do a lot of running. He's one of the most explosive Running backs in the NFL and scored a career high 3 TD's against the Lions last year, look for him to visit the end zone at least once. Overall this should be a narrow 3 point win for the Eagles as the Lions miserable season continues

Best Bet: LeSean McCoy anytime TD @ 8/15

Worth a punt: Eagles 1-6 points winning margin @ 16/5


Giants @ 49ers | 21:25 - live on Sky Sports 4

The second of Sky Sports double sees a rematch of last year's NFC title game which was won by the Giants 20-17 in overtime as they went on to be Super Bowl champions in Indianapolis. This pits the NFL's two most efficient offenses against each other, the Giants have scored on 51.8% of drives and 49.1% of drives so the defences are in for a tough game and the over 46.0 points at 10/11 looks solid value.

The Giants (5/2) are 6.5 points (10/11) outsiders on the spread and have been a real unpredictable team en route to their 3-2 record. With their defensive struggles coupled with the impressive performance of Alex Smith and his offence it's hard to see how they will cover the spread, let alone pull off the win.

The G-Men gave up a whopping 27 points to the Browns last week and put in the kind of performance without the ball that would leave us to think they are in line for a slaughtering this week at Candlestick Park. They did win the crucial playoff game but that owed a lot to two botched punt returns that resulted in a touchdown and the OT winner. The offence has been good however with Manning throwing 10 TD's and having over 1,500 passing yards, Victor Cruz (8/1 First/Last, 4/5 Anytime) is proving he is no flash in the pan while they can also welcome back Hakeem Nicks (10/1 First/Last, 5/4 anytime)

The 49ers have had their eye on this game since the schedule was announced as they seek to gain a measure of revenge for that defeat, they have put together an impressive 4-1 record this season considering the strength of opposition and have also covered the spread by 4-1 and both should easily be 5-1 after this.

Alex Smith has the NFL's best passer rating with 108.7 and has thrown 8 TD's compared to just 1 interception. Half of those TD passes have been caught by Vernon Davis (8/1 First/Last, Evs Anytime) and the tight end will fancy himself getting into the end zone again. Smith also has some extra targets on offense compared to last season with the additions on Randy Moss (20/1 First/Last, 11/4 Anytime) and former Giant Mario Manningham (14/1 First/Last, 7/4 Anytime) who can exploit his old teams fragile defence.

Best Bet: Over 46 points @ 10/11

Worth a punt: Mario Manningham first TD @ 14/1


Packers @ Texans | 01:20 - live on Channel 4

The final instalment of Sunday's live action comes in the early hours of Monday morning as the 2-3 Packers head to Texas to meet one of just 2 remaining unbeaten sides in the 5-0 Houston Texans. The Packer record is somewhat deceptive as they could just as easily be 4-1 and they have a real point to prove after blowing an 18 point loss to the Colts last week and can't afford to lose anymore ground in the NFC North race.

The Packers (17/10) have a whole host of injuries to deal with however the loss of Cedric Benson will be a huge blow as their top running back can really take some of the heat of Aaron Rodgers. In his absence Aaron Rodgers is the leader amongst active players for team rushing with just 108 yards in five games. He's 10/11 to rush for over 22.5 yards in this as he looks to pick up some of the slack. The other major injury is Rodgers favourite target in Greg Jennings, James Jones (11/1 First/Last, 11/8 Anytime) stepped up last week and will have to do so again, especially if Jermichael Finley fails his fitness test.

The Texans (1/2) have easily racked up a 5-0 record but haven't been challenged to the extent that they will be when Rodgers comes to town. They are 4-1 against the spread during that run and are 3.5 favourites here (10/11) and stand a decent chance of covering as the Pack have failed to cover the spread away and are struggling injury wise.

The Texans have early control of their division and will look to take another step unbeaten, they will be without the heart of their defence in Brian Cushing after the Linebacker was ruled out for the season, he'll be a huge blow but one that they can overcome. In what has become a passing league the running ability of Arian Foster (4/1 First/Last, 1/3 Anytime) really makes the Texans stand out, he's the second highest rusher in the league and has been a frequent visitor to the end zone. Andre Johnson (8/1 First/Last, 4/5 Anytime) should be the player to watch though as the big WR can overrun the injury hit Packers defence.

This should be the best of the three live matches and certainly worth stopping up for, I expect the Packers to be the latest side to be run over by the #1 ranked Texans as their unbeaten run lives on.

Best Bet: Andre Johnson anytime @ 4/5

Worth a Punt: Draw/Texans @ 12/1


We also have our usual enhanced live favourite's treble of Eagles, 49ers and Texans @ 9/4



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