Saturday's Spanish La Liga Preview
Getafe v Villarreal, 17:00
While it was hard to predict that this would happen, Getafe (6/4) were fantastic going forward in their 3-0 defeat of Mallorca last weekend. After all, Getafe coach Michel unusually fielded a full strength team is his clubs disappointing one all draw with Odense in the Europa league prior to the fixture with Michael Laudrup's Mallorca, so you would expect confidence to be low and legs to be tired last Sunday.
Obviously, this was not the case and the visit of a Villarreal (7/4) side that won 1-0 at home to Sevilla, but could not take enough of their chances to fully finish the Rojiblancos off, makes this weekend's Getafe game again a hard pick.
In Villarreal games, often picked to score first by myself is Nilmar (5/1 to score first, 11/8 anytime), who coolly rounded Pallop to score The Yellow Submarines winner last weekend.
However, given that Rossi had spoiled this pick a couple of times, I took a chance on free kick expert Marcos Senna (12/1 to score first, 7/2 anytime) to score his second in consecutive games against Manzano's boys. I lost, obviously, but he'll score first a couple of times this season, maybe tonight.
Scoring twice for Getafe last time out was Pedro Rios (12/1 to score first, 7/2 anytime), who also scored in The Azulones league fixture the week before. Three in two is impressive and as is this case with so many teams, I hope he scores again tonight so we can have a regular scorer to bet on for a mid level team.
Upwards of mid is high and I am, however, expecting a high level of entertainment for fellow purists of the beautiful game tonight as both teams play attractive, attacking football. Given this, I would expect both teams to score (6/10) and over 2.5 goals (7/10) to yield profit come the end of this game.
In the goal count, of slight concern is the subs current inability to score as many as they should. Of equal concern for Getafe is their unpredictability. I'm thinking that this might lead to a draw, but It's a very, very hard choice as the sensible pick is Villarreal and 7/4 is a good price.
Worth a punt: Draw (23/10)
Sevilla v Almeria, 19:00-Sky Sports 3
Starting way too slowly in their away fixture at Villarreal last weekend, Sevilla (2/5) paid the price and, counting the Europa league in Paris, lost for the fourth time in a row.
The Rojiblancos did, however, have two goals ruled out in their 1-0 defeat at El Madrigal, but they are certainly in some kind of slump and, in my eyes, not worth the risk at such a short price tonight.
Almeria (7/1) are not much of a team, but they have a new coach in Jose Luis Oltra and dominated Zaragoza in their last fixture- certainly in the first half- but could only draw 1-1 through Pablo Piatti's equaliser thirteen minutes from time.
Although the draw was disappointing, Almeria will have gained confidence from their performance and will look to Piatti (11/1 to score first, 3/1 anytime) and Nigerian forward Uche (9/1 to score first, 5/2 anytime) to increases their chances of getting something out of their trip to the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan tonight.
With Fabiano's participation in doubt, looking to get on the score sheet tonight for Sevilla will be the out of form tandem of Negredo and Kanoute (4/1 to score first, 11/10 anytime). Neither has impressed me recently, though most out of form strikers regain their scoring touch at some point so you never know, perhaps one nets tonight.
I'm not sure about double results but, given the big price, will accept likely losing a pound or two on the unlikely offering of Almeria/Almeria at 11/1. A pound or two though, I'm serious, I'll probably be wrong! In the both teams to score market, like the man from del monte, I say "Yes" (4/5).
Overall, five defeats in a row is a big, big ask for Almeria to inflict on their hosts so I think attention is best served in the handicap market.
Recommendation: Almeria + 2 goals (8/15)
Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna, 21:00-Sky Sports 3
In their 2-0 away defeat to Levante, Quique Sanchez Flores's Atletico (8/15) were second best in terms of shots on target. Well no kidding you might say given their defeat, but win lose or draw, this is an unusual statistic for Los Colchoneros.
What's also unusual is that neither Diego Forlan (7/2 to score first, 10/11 anytime) nor Kun Aguero (7/2 to score first, 10/11 anytime) scored. I wouldn't, however, expect that to last too long though.
In fact, one of the two will likely score today against a Deportivo (6/1) team that, while in good form generally, does not travel well: One win, two draws and four defeats so far this season.
Last Monday night, at home in the Riazor, Lotina's boys edged out Hercules by a slender 1-0 scoreline. Finishing off a slick training ground style set piece with a simple header was Lassad (8/1 to score first, 9/4 anytime).
That was, however, Tunisian Lassad's first goal of the season and given that the Galacians have only scored three goals in seven away games this season - two in the defeat of Levante and one in the 6-1 thrashing at Real - sense dictates that they will probably not score tonight.
That being the case, the "No" (10/11) option in the both teams to score market has appeal. As does under 2.5 goals as Atleti are not firing on all cylinders and could win 1-0 or 2-0 (priced at 6/1 and 13/2 respectively.
However, the Atletico keeper, David De Gea, has seemingly been following in the footsteps of his predecessor, Sergio Asenjo, by looking like "the next big thing" with some world class performances, before making costly errors at key times.
Given the above, maybe Depor can snare a goal and walk out of the Vicente Calderon with a highly unlikely draw (11/4). For sake of a pound or two just in case this game plays out similar to Atletico's disappointing 1-1 home draw with Almeria a few weeks ago, It could be worth taking a big chance on the long shot double result bet of Atletico/draw (16/1). However, if I was an Atleti fan - and i'm not - who wanted to see his team win, I'd take a chance on draw/Atletico (16/5).
Overall I'd say that a home win is probable, but not trustworthy and not worth the risk at the price. Betting in-play is well worth doing as, should the home team not score early, Depor will be perfectly happy to play for a 0-0 draw (11/1 pre-match) and that cannot be ruled out.
There are choices and theories aplenty in this game, but I think the best bet is a handicap punt that covers most eventualities.
Recommendation: Deportivo + 2 goals (1/2)
Enjoy the action and if don't forget that William Hill offers over 100 in-play markets for you to choose from.