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Nic Ladds 19th May 2009 - 14:15

A Werd of advice - expect goals in Istanbul

Werder Bremen are bookmaker William Hill's narrow 6/4 favourites to beat Shaktar Donetsk 13/8 in Wednesday night's UEFA Cup Final in Istanbul.

All those old clichés about finals being "tight", "nervy affairs", with just one mistake from either side being "so costly" conjure up in our mind's eye a drab, inhibitive game of football.

If you believe all that mumbo jumbo then those Hill's odds of 19/10 about the draw may look like the greatest bet since Ben Hur started as a big outsider in the chariot race.

Yet if we drill down into the results from recent UEFA Cup finals we can see that goals have been in pretty healthy supply.

Last year, Zenit St Petersburg, inspired by Andrei Arshavin took the trophy back to Eastern Europe for the second time in four years beating Rangers 2-0.

In 2007 Juande Ramos's Sevilla beat Catalonians Espanyol on penalties after a cracking 2-2 draw at Hampden. In 2006 Ramos's Andalucians thrashed Middlesbrough 4-0. And the 2005 final saw CSKA Moscow beat Sporting Lisbon 3-1.

So if past results are anything to go by it would be no surprise to see the goals flying in. With that in mind and not a great deal between these two (certainly as far as the odds compilers are concerned) the 2-2 draw with Hills is an enticing 12/1.

Since joining the competition from their failed Champions League group bid German side Bremen have taken care of AC Milan, St Etienne, Udinese and Hamburg to reach Fenerbahçe SK's Sukru Saracoglu Stadium.

Currently a modest 10th in the Bundesliga, beforehand it's always tough to truly assess how that stacks up against Shakhtar's 2nd in the Ukrainian league, but I would say pretty close.

From the round of 32 teams Shakhtar have overcome Spurs (oh Harry Redknapp why did you field such a weakened side?), CSKA Moscow, Marseille and Dynamo Kiev.

Bremen's on-loan Chelsea striker Claudio Pizarro is rated as 7/1 to grab the first goal with Hills and with Hugo Almeida and Diego both suspended the big Peruvian now becomes a real attacking focal point.

Pizarro might have all the pace of a post Christmas Jan Molby but 17 goals in 25 Bundesliga matches this season suggests he knows how to find the back of the onion bag.

On the other side of the fence Luiz Adriano gets a worthy nod at the top of the market by the Hills compilers at 8/1 to notch the first goal. The 22-year-old Brazilian has big match experience too.

When coming on as substitute for Internacional against Barcelona in the final of the 2006 FIFA Club World Cup the turned the game to inspire his side to a 1-0 win.

Twenty-nine months on, the predicted Premiership move back then has still yet to materialise, but an eye-catching display in the Istanbul shop window might just sort that. He's 7/1 to bag the last goal - I think that's well worth a poke.

Talking of big game experience Shakhtar are looking for a first European trophy, Bremen their second following their 1991/92 UEFA Cup Winners' Cup triumph.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Werder Bremen - view all betting markets

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