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Craig Porter 14th Apr 2009 - 13:14

Arsenal will close the door for a draw

Arsenal host Villarreal in the Champions League Quarter Final second leg at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday night.

With the tie level after the 1-1 result in the first leg the Gunners need just a goalless draw to progress to the semi-final stage.

Emmanuel Adebayor's stunning second half strike in Spain last week secured the vital away goal which puts Arsène Wenger's side in the driving seat - as a result, Arsenal are just 1/5 to qualify.

Wenger likes to keep his football simple and it doesn't get more simple than knowing you progress by keeping a clean sheet - something Arsenal have acheived in all four of the home games in this year's Champions League campaign.

In fact, Arsenal are on an impressive run of 23 unbeaten home games in the Champions League, their last defeat occurring at this exact stage five years ago when they lost at Highbury to Chelsea, but avoid the 8/15 for them to win in 90 minutes or even the 11/4 about the draw.

Manuel Pellegrini's Villarreal side have a good record on English soil, including two 0-0 results at Old Trafford, their only defeat coming at the hands of Arsenal in 2005/06. There's 4/1 available on them keeping another clean sheet, big considering Arsenal don't need to score.

But the Spanish team are not prolific goal scorers themselves. They may have netted 13 this Champions League campaign, the same as Arsenal and Manchester Utd, but six of those came in one game. Odds of 6/1 for them to win in 90 minutes are big, even tempting, but long for a reason.

The facts are these: Arsenal have no need to score, another clean sheet to add to their four already this year will see them through, they have gone five years without losing at home. Add in Villarreal's impotent strike force and it becomes hard to see the outcome as anything other than the Gunner's ideal result of nil-nil which you can take at odds of 13/2.

Your better bet would be No Goalscorer which will still pay out at 13/2 if there's an unlucky own goal as they don't count in this market.

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