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Nic Ladds 20th Oct 2010 - 16:43

Can Lech Poznan keep it respectable against the Citizens?

It is hard to see anything other than a comprehensive home victory as Polish champions Lech Poznan visit moneybags Manchester City in the Europa League.

Even when you take in to account Manchester City's slight injury crisis and the fact Lech sit above them in Group A after the first two matches (albeit on goals scored as they both have four points), this match is less about will Man City win, but more about by how many.

After two matches, City (2/9) sit on four points with a 2-0 away win in Salzburg and a 1-1 home draw against Juventus.

Mancini could have a tough choice on who to play up front with Mario Balotelli injured, Roque Santa Cruz unregistered for this competition and Jo doubtful. After Adebayor's disappointing showing against Blackpool at the weekend, Mancini may risk Tevez even though resting him would be the ideal option with just two days to recover before his side play Arsenal.

Man City will surely have one eye on the massive domestic clash but Mancini insists he wants to win this game and will be taking it very seriously.

If Tevez does start, he is the obvious choice to score first, he in fantastic form for his club and is 11/4 to score the first goal.

For a slightly better price I would look towards Adam Johnson to get his name on the scoresheet. The ex-Middlesbrough man has stepped up a level with consummate ease and is now a regular for both club and country. He chips in with his fair share of goals and looks the bet to score first at 7/1 or 2/1 to score anytime.

If you really fancy City to give their opponents a real lesson in this match, and when you consider the gulf in class between the sides, our Match Winner offer of City to win by 4 or more goals looks impressive at 5/1.

Lech Poznan (11/1) shocked a lot of people picking up a point in an astonishing 3-3 draw away at Juventus. They then followed that up by beating Salzburg 2-0 but they are an inconsistent side, especially when you look at their domestic form.

The 2009/10 Ekstraklasa champions have won just two of their eight league matches this season and sit third bottom of 16 teams in the table. Away from home they have won one in five, which just reinforces the notion that they will be lucky to walk away from Eastlands with their pride intact, never mind any points.

Obviously the 2/9 on City isn't the most appealing price in the world, even if it is fair. Therefore to get the value out of a big home win you are best off looking at the handicap markets.  The bet for me is Man City -2 goals at 8/5, if you think they will win by more, I refer you back to the Match Winner offer.

As far as a correct score bet is concerned I think 3-0 and 4-0 will be the places to be, and are 6/1 and 17/2 respectively. Looking at Lech Poznan's attacking line up, I can't really see them getting a goal (Man City in the only team to score market 4/5).

 

 
 
 

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