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Nic Ladds 12th Mar 2009 - 12:25

Credit where it's Due - Aalborg can shock City

As hard as it is to believe Manchester City are 9/2 favourites to win the whole UEFA Cup and are available at odds of 4/7 to beat Aalborg tonight.

City are one of the most wildly inconsistent teams around and although they are generally solid at home, you wouldn't want to be taking short prices about them

Aalborg meanwhile are available at 6/1 with the draw at 5/2.

The Danish side are unbeaten in 16 games and disposed of Deportivo in the last round 6-1 on aggregate.

City meanwhile have won five home games in a row which would explain their short odds. They edged out FC Copenhagen in the last round who hadn't even started their domestic campaign, suggesting it won't be quite as easy as the odds suggest.

City to record another 2-1 win is 15/2 with 1-0 at 11/2 or if you think they will give the away side a real beating then perhaps 4-0 at 20/1 takes your fancy?

We could see goals in this game (although it's very difficult to tell with Man City) and an Aalborg victory along the lines of 3-1 at 80/1 looks tempting with 1-0 as long as 11/1 and a 1-1 draw can be backed at odds of 6/1. Those fancying a bore fest, 0-0 is 7/1.

For a double result Aalborg/Aalborg at 12/1 is tempting if you think the away side will get the upper hand early on with Man City/Man City the favourite at even money and draw/Man City 10/3.

With Craig Bellamy out, Mark Hughes received a boost when he found out Robinho would be available again and the Brazilian ace is 4/1 to score the first goal with Caicedo at 5/1.

Shaun Wright-Phillips has been in good form recently and could threaten from midfield at 7/2 to score anytime.

Aalborg have been firing goals in, having demolished Deportivo 3-0 and 3-1 home and away in the last round and they have a number of potent threats, including Luton Shelton who is 8/1 to bag the first goal.

Brazilian Lucas Caca is also 8/1 to score first, while midfielder Anders Due scored two against Deportivo and can get involved again facing a City defence missing Vincent Kompany and Micah Richards, at 16/1 for first goal or 6/1 to score anytime.

In most cases, you would need your head examined backing Man City at odds on and at the prices, the Danish side appeal more.

Some mileage could be had in Aalborg to qualify at 11/4 as if they can avoid losing by a large margin tonight then they can exploit City's poor away record when taking them back to the Energi Nord Arena.

The Blues are on their way to safety in the Premier League and Hughes would enjoy a good run in the UEFA Cup to appease the board who still may be baying for his blood at the end of the season.

While they may win this battle, Aalborg are more than equipped to run them close in the war.

Recommendation:
Anders Due to score anytime - 6/1
Aalborg to qualify - 11/4

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