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Antony Heath 12th Jun 2012 - 13:45

Denmark v Portugal preview

Denmark v Portugal

17:00 - live on ITV1

 

The Dane's produced the shock of the opening round of fixtures as they beat a disappointing Dutch side 1-0 to share the lead of the group B. They rode their luck at numerous times but showed plenty of resilience and showed they will be a difficult foe in this year's competition. Portugal on the other hand lost their opening fixture to Germany 1-0, on paper it doesn't appear to be too bad a result but the manner of the performance will leave cause for concern.

Denmark and Portugal should have a good understanding of each other as the met in the qualifying stages with Denmark ultimately topping the group while Portugal arrived via the playoffs. They both won their respective home fixtures and so this one could really go either way.

The Danes (13/5) gave their hopes of qualification a massive boost with the victory over Holland. They didn't look like a world beating side as they were looked nervous on the ball and for long spells of the match they couldn't even get a foot on the ball as the Dutch dominated position and peppered the Danish goal with shots. They should have the confidence and more if the ball against Portugal and be able to cause them problems.

While the Danish didn't have the possession or attempts that the Dutch did they certainly made them count. Michael Krohn-Dehli's expertly taken strike was enough to see them home and he is 11/1 to net first/last this time and 4/1 to score at anytime. The line will be led again by Nicklas Bendtner (7/1 First/Last, 2/1 Anytime) and he was also on the score sheet when they beat Portugal 2-1 in the last qualifying fixture.

The Portuguese (21/20, Draw 23/10) need to make amends for the performance over Germany and a victory here would go a good way to doing that as well as giving themselves a realistic chance of a quarter-final appearance. They struggled to create chances and despite the presence of Ronaldo they didn't look like scoring, should they have another similar night in front of goals you can back Portugal to score 0 goals @ 5/2 which looks to offer some value.

They are certainly capable of scoring goals though (they netted 4 in the 2 qualifying games against Denmark) and have the talent but they just need to apply it. In those2 qualifying games Ronaldo (5/1 First/Last, 5/4 Anytime) and Nani (9/1 First/Last, 10/3) split the goals between them and they are decent prices to do so again if you think they can turn a corner against "weaker" opponents.

On balance I think this will be a low scoring affair with under 2.5 goals at 6/10 looking a banker even if it quite short. In keeping with the group so far I expect either another 1-0 win (Denmark 1-0 @ 17/2, Portugal 1-0 @ 11/2) or the 1-1 draw at 6/1. As I expect little in the way of goals and action the math action of under 50points at 5/1 is certainly appealing. We also have a Match Winner offer for Ronaldo to score anytime and Portugal to win at an enhanced 7/2!

 

Top Bets

Under 2.5 goals @ 6/10

Ronaldo to score anytime @ 5/4

Worth a punt

Ronaldo first goal and a 1-1 draw @ 35/1

Under 50points match action @ 5/1

 

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