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Nic Ladds 28th May 2010 - 15:14

Jackett's play-off heartache to continue

Millwall's play-off misery is set to continue as they take on Swindon in this year's League One play-off final.

Millwall lost to Scunthorpe in this fixture last year and I think they will miss out once again as Swindon will edge this match.

Millwall are favourites to win this match at 23/20 and while they just missed out on an automatic spot and have the better squad on paper - I really fancy The Robins to spring an upset and make it to The Championship.

It is quite hard to justify myself on Swindon (12/5) as they drew at home and lost away when they met Millwall in the league. I just feel with the cup final atmosphere and the pressure off, they will be able to upset the odds.

Just as Blackpool shocked many at Wembley one week ago by beating Cardiff in stunning fashion, despite the odds, I think once again we will see the underdog move up a league.

Swindon gaffer Danny Wilson realises it will be tough, Millwall do not concede many goals, just 44 in 46 matches but Swindon are certainly the side with goals in them.

Swindon's Billy Paynter and Charlie Austin both sit in the top 10 League One scoring charts with 26 and 20 respectively. If these two turn up with their shooting boots on, there is no reason Swindon can't fire themselves to victory, both men are 6/1 to score the first goal.

The Lions will be no pushovers though, and pack their own brand of firepower. Kenny Jackett's men avoided defeat in 15 of their last 17 competitive games this season, 11 of which were won.

Steve Morison (4/1) has 23 goals in all competitions this season so Swindon will have to keep him quiet if they are to have any chance of nicking a win.

Swindon could really use the psychological edge going in to this match; with no pressure on them they can really go out and enjoy the day without the expectancy looming over them. As Millwall lost here last year, nerves could be rife as everyone really expects Millwall to end their four-year stay in League One.

Kenny Jackett also lost a play-off final as a manager in 2006, when Barnsley won on penalties to deny Swansea promotion, so the pressure is really on him not to lose his third in four years.

Although all the odds seem to be against me, I really think Swindon will shock a few people, overcoming Charlton in the semi-final showed just how well they can deal with being unfancied.

The major team news is that Millwall are without their player of the season Alan Dunne in defence and Swindon welcome back first choice keeper David Lucas.

Millwall are undoubtedly the stronger and better placed club for promotion but in this one off match, at a neutral ground - there is no reason why Swindon can't win.

I will be backing them 90 minutes at 12/5 but also covering myself by backing them to be promoted at 5/4 in case of extra time and also Swindon and the draw double chance at 4/6.

In way of a correct score I do think it will be a tight, low scoring affair - although I did think that about Blackpool v Cardiff! However in this match I will be betting on the 1-0 and 2-1 to Swindon scorelines at 15/2 and 10/1 respectively.



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