Monday night La Liga preview
So far this season, every Monday night La Liga game has contained at least four goals. With Sociedad and Deportivo amassing only ten goals between them in fourteen games combined, surely we're not on for another four goal haul tonight are we?
Despite being someone who takes great interest in betting patterns, I'd have to say no: In three games at home, Sociedad (evens) have scored three goals and conceded two - both to Real Madrid.
Sociedad's opponents tonight, 19th placed Deportivo (14/5), have scored a solitary goal, with seven conceded in three away games. Seven goals conceded suggests that Lotina's boys have a pitiful defence, but six of the seven came at the hands of a rampant Real Madrid side in the Bernabeu.
Our Basque hosts may carry the name Real, but they are clearly nowhere near as likely to thrash teams as Jose's boys are, so under 2.5 goals (1/2) and "No" (13/20) in the both teams to score market look like better bets than the Monday night favourites of over 3.5 goals (4/1) and "Yes" (23/20) in the same categories.
With Raul Tamudo expected to miss this game, there are no standout picks in the scorers market. However, I expect at least one goal tonight and Sociedad's Sarpong (7/1 to score first, 15/8 anytime) did score in the 2-1 defeat away to Levante last weekend.
Perhaps it's harsh to call him "the other Llorente" given that he's been around a lot longer than his Bilbao namesake, but Sociedad's Joseba has so far failed to find the net in his second stint with the Basque club and is not going to be recommended by me until he does. If you think he will break his duck tonight, the injury prone striker is priced at 5/1 to score the first goal or 11/8 anytime.
Priced at 5/1 is my favoured scoreline pick of 1-0 to Sociedad. Other scorelines to look at are 2-0 to Sociedad (8/1) and the "just in case" 0-0 (priced at 13/2) that Deportivo have achieved three times in seven games - most recently in last week's home game with Osasuna.
I don't think that Deportivo will score (Sociedad are 19/20 to keep a clean sheet) and despite being mindful of the fact that, this season, every Monday night Primera Liga match has had at least one goal in the first half, I prefer Draw/Real Sociedad (15/4) to Real Sociedad/Real Sociedad (12/5) in the double result market.
My choice in the double result market obviously means that I think Martin Lasarte's Real Sociedad will win the match. Their even money price is enough for me, but should you be tempted to take a chance and wait for a better price, you can always bet in-play with William Hill Online.
Recommendation: Real Sociedad (evens)
Worth a punt: Correct score of 1-0 to Sociedad (5/1)