Run of the Mill for Rotherham
Rotherham managed a massive 1-0 win away at Aldershot in the first-leg of this League Two play-off semi-final clash. All they have to do is avoid defeat at the Don Valley stadium and they set up a Wembley final against Dag & Red.
Adam Le Fondre, who has smashed in a massive 25 league goals this season, struck the only goal in the 88th minute on Saturday to massively boost Rotherham's chances of making League One.
In the league campaign, Rotherham did suffer too many draws at home which hampered them badly and while I think they are clear favourites to make the final, I am wary of the draw in 90 minutes (23/10) in this match.
The league meeting between these two in Rotherham also ended in a 0-0 stalemate (17/2), as the home side have scored four goals in 10 matches, that really doesn't look a bad price.
Ronnie Moore praised the way his side defended in the first leg and said if they can repeat that performance in front of their own fans, they will win this game.
Other than for Le Fondre, goals have been hard to come by. If he is on form, Rotherham usually win as they defend well but if he doesn't score then the team struggles as a whole.
Their goal difference of just +3 is testament to that, and they scored just 29 goals at home in 23 matches, a lot less than any other side in the play-offs.
Le Fondre is of course big favourite to score first (3/1), but if Rotherham are to do it, it will be through him.
Aldershot (5/2) have two players that have been scoring on a regular basis for them. Up front, they have Marvin Morgan who has 16 to his name this season and is 6/1 to score first.
Scott Donnelly has had a cracking season in midfield and chipped in with 14 goals and looks a decent price at 9/1 to score first or 10/3 any time.
Rotherham should be able to name an unchanged line-up from the first-leg. Aldershot do not have that luxury as their first choice keeper was substituted off on Saturday so Mikhael Jaimez-Ruiz will have to deputise.
As Dag & Red won the other semi first-leg 6-0 it is safe to say they will be waiting at Wembley for the winner of this clash. With such a beatable team waiting for them, the incentive is really the winner of this tie to make it to League One.
Rotherham are obviously big favourites to qualify at 2/7 but if you just want to bet on this match, then the 1/2 on Rotherham draw no bet is certainly a good price if you are not put off by short odds.
As I said earlier, I do think the price on a goalless draw looks good given Rotherham's history but when you look at Aldershot's past, they haven't been involved in a no score draw in 30 matches.
Taking all of this in to account I am going to recommend a slender Rotherham win (11/10), you can get 13/5 on The Millers to win by one goal or 6/1 on the correct score of 1-0.
Even better is the massive 20/1 price on Le Fondre to score first and the match to finish 1-0 scorecast.