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Jonathan Cordingley 19th Dec 2009 - 19:44

Spanish football frenzy

Tenerife v Atletico Madrid

Atletico (5/4) looked like they were starting to turn the corner after victories over Espanyol and Xerez, but after a Champions league defeat to Porto and a La Liga loss to Villarreal, they have clearly regressed.

Given that they threw away a 1-0 half time lead, the loss to Villarreal is the most painful of the two defeats and the chairman let his players know just how poorly he though they had played in the second half by giving them a 45 minute mauling in the changing room after the game.

Improvements must be made and on current form, their priority is simply to avoid relegation. Any gamblers priority is to make money and a revealing statistic tells us that Atletico have lost more points than any other league club (14) when taking the lead in a La Liga match. They have amassed only three wins from the nine games in which they have taken the lead, so the "come from behind and win or draw" bet should be of interest to punters and is priced at 9/2 for Tenerife to do just that.

Tenerife's (2/1) aim is certainly nothing more than avoiding relegation, but their home form is encouraging (4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats) and as is the case in any league, that will likely decide their fate.

For those who like a goal scorer, it's hard to look beyond Sergio "Kun" Aguero and Diego Forlan. This week, Sergio is priced at 9/2 for the first goal, with Diego 4/1 to perform the same feat. They are 6/5 and evens respectively to score at anytime. If you want someone with a bigger price, Portuguese winger Simao scored in Atletico's last game and he is 11/4 to score at anytime.

Worth a punt: Tenerife to come from behind and win or draw (9/2)


Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

Despite costing me a few quid when I backed them to draw at home to Barca a couple of weeks ago, Depor (9/5) remain a formidable team at home and once ahead in a game, will ease of and defend their lead. Valencia (27/20) like to counter attack, so should this scenario occur, it will be very interesting to see how Los Che cope.

It's worth noting that only Barcelona (8) have kept more clean sheets than Deportivo (7) in La Liga this season and Valencia have won their last five away games, conceding only two goals in the process.

Another statistic reveals that Valencia are unbeaten in their last eight league meetings with Deportivo with five wins and three draws.

With Liverpool target David Silva missing through injury and Valencia likely to field most of the team that won in Genoa on Thursday (and yes, Villa did score!), I'm not certain that they will make it a club record six away wins in a row, so a draw merits consideration and is priced at 11/5.

However, I have no clear inkling of the outcome in this match, so I will instead divert your attention (as usual!) to Valencia forward David Villa who has 12 goals in 13 La Liga starts. With such form he cannot be ignored and is priced at 4/1 for the first goal and evens to score at anytime.

Recommendation: Villa to score at anytime (evens)

Enjoy the action and don't forget that you can bet in play with William Hill Online.



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