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Jonathan Cordingley 29th Oct 2010 - 15:57

Sunday's La Liga previews

Deportivo La Coruna v Espanyol, 16:00

Through out of form striker Riki (11/2 to score first, 3/2 anytime), Lotina's not so super Depor had one excellent chance in their 3-0 away defeat to Real Sociedad on Monday night.

That chance aside, Deportivo offered nothing in San Sebastian, meekly surrendering to their opponents. Despite teams of the Galacians standing usually losing to rivals of a similar stature away from home on a regular basis, the early signs are that Deportivo look destined for the Segunda division.

Relegation would be a sad end for a club that used to have such players as Bebeto, Mauro Silva, Rivaldo and Djalminha. After all, It was only ten years ago that Depor were league champions and who can forget when they beat AC Milan 4-0 in the 2004 Champions league knockout stages after losing the first leg 3-0.

Anything can change in football, but I don't see Deportivo (8/5) getting their first league win of the season this afternoon -Though a few weeks ago I would have been tempted to recommend a home win against tonight's travel shy opponents, 5th placed Espanyol.

However, Pochettino's Espanyol (17/10) went against the form book by beating Mallorca 1-0 on the island in their last away game. They looked pretty good as well.

The Catalans also looked impressive in their 2-1 home defeat of Levante, a result that moved them up to 5th place in the Primera Liga standings.

On the scoresheet that day were Datolo (8/1 to score first, 9/4 anytime) and Callejon (11/2 to score first, 3/2 anytime). However, until Pablo Osvaldo returns from suspension and scores, there is no clear pick in the scorers market.

Instead I think attention is better served in the correct score market: Punts of 0-0 and 1-0 to Espanyol are what I fancy (13/2 and 6/1 respectively).

I do indeed think that Espanyol's way win in Mallorca was a one off, and while willing to cover an away win with what I deem the most likely scoreline in that scenario, think that X marks the spot tonight.

The 90 minute draw (11/5) could be complimented with a double result bet of draw/draw (16/5).

In other markets: The "No" option in both teams to score looks likely at 4/6, as does under 2.5 goals at 1/2. Short prices though, depends on whether you deem them worth the risk compared to more rewarding bets.

Recommendation: Draw (11/5)

 

Malaga v Real Sociedad, 16:00

After losing 3-0 away to Osasuna last weekend, I must express great disappointment with Malaga (11/10). Besides the obvious loss, failing to score was what really got my goat.

As you might have read last week, or guessed by now, I fancied both teams to score. While Camacho's boys held up their side of my projected bargain, Jesualdo Ferreira's charges could not even manage a shot on target!

This afternoon's visitors, Real Sociedad (5/2), did manage several shots on target in their 3-0 home defeat of hapless Deportivo as they cruised to victory after Joseba Llorente broke his seasonal debut with the opener.

While Llorente (13/2 to score first, 7/4 anytime) is now the obvious pick if you fancy a Sociedad scorer, I see no clear pick for who is likely to score for Malaga. I expect that someone will, but I can't find anything to justify picking a particular player.

For the 90 minute market: People often say "If in doubt, pick a home win." I'm in doubt, but not convinced that this theory is what I should use. Why? Well, simply because Malaga have yet to win a league game at La Rosaleda.

Reason enough to watch some of the game then bet in-play I think. However, for the pre match punter, I think that the draw is worth a punt at 23/10.

Also worth a punt, and despite the hosts  ineptitude in front of goal last weekend,  is "Yes" (4/5) in the both teams to score market as Malaga have scored in every home game and Sociedad have netted in three of their four away games.

Based on my expectancy of both teams to score, a correct score punt of 1-1 (priced at 6/1) could prove to be just the ticket for anybody looking for such a bet.

Recommendation: "Yes" in the both teams to score market (4/5)

Worth a punt: Draw (23/10)

 

Racing Santander v Osasuna, 16:00

Pedro Munitis could not score against his former employers, Real Madrid, in the Bernabeu last weekend but Markus Rosenberg (5/1 to score first, 11/8 anytime) could. However, it was only because Diop's shot cannoned of his back as he kneeled down to get out of the way!

Unfortunately, the Swede's goal was nothing more than a consolation as Racing's new style defence conceded six goals. While nobody expected the Santander boys to do anything other than lose in Madrid, fans of the Verdiblancos will expect them to beat Osasuna (9/5) this afternoon.

Last weekend, Camacho's Osasuna eased passed Malaga by virtue of a comfortable 3-0 home win. On the scoresheet were Nekounam (11/1 to score first, 3/1 anytime), Shojaei (12/1 first, 7/2 any) and Aranda (7/1 and 15/8 in the same categories).

Taking into account that many teams do well at home but lose away, this weekend I'd expect Racing (6/4) to do just enough to keep under pressure manager Miguel Angel Portugal in a job for at least another week.

However, it must be said that this game has ended in a 1-1 draw (11/2) for the past two seasons so a small punt on that scoreline, along with one on Racing to win 1-0 (6/1) is what I'd suggest you bet on.

 

Sporting Gijon v Villarreal, 16:00

Well, what a performance The Yellow Submarines gave in beating Atletico 2-0 last weekend: Great movement with and without the ball complimented by incisive passing and cool finishing.

As a result of this, Juan Carlos Garrido's Villarreal (11/10) are full of confidence and look like genuine challengers to Barcelona and Real Madrid. However, its games like tonight's against Sporting (5/2) that will give us a clearer indication of how realistic their ambitions are.

For Manuel Preciado's Gijon side do not lose many games inside their small, atmospheric El Molinon stadium: One loss to Valencia, with a draw and two wins completing their record.

One of Sporting's home wins was against Sevilla a couple of weeks ago - impressive stuff, they could and should have won by more than the eventual 2-0 scoreline - so Villarreal certainly have cause for concern.

You could argue that Sporting have cause for concern after losing 3-0 to Getafe last weekend, but then that's just how this league works for teams at their level. Lose most away games without scoring, but win or draw most of their home games.

Bar their opening day 1-0 defeat to Sociedad, Villarreal have scored in every away game so far this season. Much the same at home, Sporting only failed to score in a defeat to Valencia.

I would not expect a high scoring game today, but think that both teams will score: The "Yes" option in that market is priced at 8/11.

When assessing players to potentially score this afternoon, Diego Castro (9/1 to score first, 5/2 anytime) is the standout pick for Sporting with three goals in seven games.

Rossi (5/1 to score first, 11/8 anytime) and, although he's not scored for a few games, Nilmar (9/2 to score first, 5/4 anytime) are my favoured offerings for Villarreal players - Both players have five goals.

For anyone interested in scorelines, 2-1 to Villarreal (15/2) and, given that you can't rule a draw out, 1-1 (priced at 6/1) are my favoured suggestions.

For a scorecast bet, I'll be having a pound on Rossi to get the first goal and Villarreal to win 2-1. A 28/1 price is available on that longshot.

The 90 minute market is a tough pick as I don't see Villarreal losing, but think they could just as easily draw (23/10) as win (11/10). Given my uncertainty its bet in-play for me.

Recommendation: Rossi e/w first scorer (5/1)

Worth a punt: Correct score of 2-1 to Villarreal (15/2)

 

Atletico Madrid v Almeria, 18:00

In their 2-0 away defeat to Villarreal, Atleti started well before quickly fading once behind. Worse still, they totally gave up at 2-0. Tired from European action or not, it was pitiful and Quique will surely smack a few bottoms this week!

A smacking is not, however, what Diego Forlan needs as the poor lad is simply burned out; hardly surprising when you consider that he went into the World Cup carrying an injury.

The Primera Liga scoring streak of Diego Costa (9/2 to score first, 5/4 anytime) is over, but the boy must be credited with carrying the load very well in the absence of Kun Aguero.

At El Madrigal, Aguero (9/2 to score first, 5/4 anytime) had a goal perhaps harshly ruled out for offside, and I'd generally prefer to wait for him to have one allowed before I'd recommend betting on him, but tonight's game is on home ground against travel shy opponents and I fancy him to score.

With that in mind, I recommend serious consideration of the anytime wincast bet involving the Argentine scoring and Atletico winning the game (6/1).

If Atletico do win the game I think the best scorelines to consider are 2 and 3-0; priced at 7/1 and 11/1 respectively. Even 4-0 could be worth a pound given its large, tempting price (20/1).

Four nil eh, why so high? Well, the Almeria boss, Juan Manuel Lillo, is under pressure for the team's poor start and away to Atletico (8/15) sounds like a good opportunity for his players to give up and allow the axe to fall.

The axe may well have already fallen had Almeria (11/2) not equalized through Ulloa in their 1-1 home draw with Hercules last weekend. If they go behind tonight as I expect they will, backers of the teams to score market will be happy with a pre match punt on "Atletico Madrid Only" at 8/5.

For double result punters, I'd suggest you consider Atletico/Atletico (7/5) as they should start quick. That being the case, Atletico to be leading at half time has merit at 23/20.

Results in the Primera Liga last weekend suggested that home form is once again becoming trustworthy in most of the games. I expect tonight to be no different.

Recommendation: Double result bet of Atletico/Atletico (7/5)

Worth a punt: Wincast bet of Aguero scores first and Atletico win (6/1)

 

Athletic Bilbao v Getafe, 20:00

It could be argued that Athletic would have drawn with Sevilla if not for the bizarre penalty awarded to the Rojiblancos in the closing stages of last weekend's clash at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.

However, it could also be argued that the penalty awarded to Athletic prior to that was harsh given that the ball was blasted at the offending Sevilla player.

Either way, Athletic (21/20) are back at home in the Basque Cathedral of San Mames and should win today.

Key to winning, as ever, will be giant target man Fernando Llorente (7/2 to score first, 10/11 anytime), who scored a brace in the 4-3 defeat last weekend.

Tonight's opponents, seventh placed Getafe (13/5), have a decent counter attack game and are coming off the back of a comfortable 3-0 home defeat of Sporting Gijon so I would not be surprised to see them score in this game. For the record, Michel's boys have scored in all but one of their away games so far this season and were unlucky not to in their 2-0 defeat to Los Colchoneros.

Priced at 7/1 to score first or 2/1 anytime is Getafe's Colunga, a player who scored from the penalty spot for the Azulones last weekend. He's not in outstanding form, but hopefully he can be Getafe's scorer in the likely winning option of "Yes" (7/10) in the both teams to score market.

Notably, Getafe have won here before (2008/09) and drew this fixture 2-2 last season (14/1 if you fancy a repeat of that scoreline).

Despite this, I still fancy a home win with Llorente scoring first (5/1) and suggest consideration of scoreline punts involving 2 and 3-1 wins for the hosts - priced at 15/2 and 16/1 respectively.

Recommendation: Athletic (21/20)

Worth a punt: Llorente to score first (7/2)

Enjoy the action and don't forget that you can bet in-play with William Hill online.

 

 
 
 

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