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Nic Ladds 4th Dec 2009 - 16:10

The price is right for Burnley to break away day duck

What happens when the side with the worst home record in the Premier League meets the side with the worst away record? Well Saturday's lunchtime kick off will reveal all as Portsmouth take on Burnley at Fratton Park.

Pompey are in real trouble as they sit seven points adrift of safety and their match odds of 5/6 are explained by Avram Grant taking over the managerial reigns and he has a serious job on his hands and you won't find too many punters willing to steam in to the home side at odds on.

This is their best chance of a win this season by far as 7/2 shots Burnley have picked up just a point away from home and have conceded 25 goals in their seven away games.

Grant will be praying this opens the floodgates for Aruna Dindane and Frederic Piquionne to score some much needed goals and the pair are 5/1 and 6/1 respectively to score first but the biggest threat could come from midfield where Jamie O'Hara (12/1 to open the scoring) and Kevin - Prince Boateng (10/1) have looked useful and look better goal scoring threats than the front pair.

For Burnley, Steven Fletcher and Robbie Blake have proved themselves top notch Premier League players and will exploit any gaps in the shaky Pompey defence at 13/2 and 8/1 to open the scoring with Fletcher in particular looking dangerous having scored five in his last seven.

Portsmouth fans will be delighted to hear that they have not lost to Burnley in the last nine times they have played them but it is arguable this year who has the more superior team and if this were at Turf Moor, people would be writing Grant's side off.

Many punters may well favour a frustrating draw which is 12/5 in the match odds or 0-0 is 11/1 and 1-1 5/1. Portsmouth winning scores are predictably short given their match odds with 1-0 11/2 and 2-1 6/1 but it is hard to envisage either side keeping a clean sheet and some will certainly be drawn by the bigger odds of Burnley as 2-0 is 18/1 and 2-1 a generous looking 10/1.

With one team so woeful generally and the other terrible away this may be a tough one to call for some punters but at the prices a bet on Burnley looks the best course of action with rumours of unrest in the Pompey camp due not only to their league position but rumours that the squad have not been paid and 7/2 about the visitors makes them look worth a shot at recording their first away win.

Those who think I'm insane could play it a bit safe with Fletcher to grab a goal anytime at 15/8 or both sides to score at 4/5 could also reap dividends.

If Burnley's away form doesn't improve soon they mind themselves sucked in to a relegation battle that they are so far avoiding but for Portsmouth, a loss this weekend could turn out to have much graver implications for them as the season wares on.

Recommendation:
Burnley - 7/2

Steven Fletcher to score anytime - 15/8

 
 
 

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