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David Thompson 28th Jun 2011 - 10:23

Bo Van Pelt to win his National threesome

AT&T National

This week the US PGA Tour travels to the par-70 Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennslyvania. A strong field including 11 major winners takes on the notoriously challenging course which can be stretched to a massive 7,237 yards.

Englishman Justin Rose 33/1 is the defending champion with a 10 under par, 270 total stroke victory in 2010. He will want to play well and make a good defense, however a top-ten finish is the best outcome I can see him achieving this time round at odds of 11/4

Aronimink is tied for the second-lowest birdie average (2.73) for all of last year and it was a very average 25th in greens in regulation (65.50 percent) Therefore, the final leaderboard should be populated by guys who rank near the top in greens hit and bogey avoidance.

With that in mind J.B Holmes 40/1 looks like he has the credentials to do well. He finished fifth here last year, he ranked third in distance of the tee and T3 in greens hit. Not to mention he carded a bogey-free 66 in the final round in 2010.

Contrasting to the Travelers Championship last weekend, Aronimink is not a course whereby you will have to make a succession of birdies in order to win. Four of the last five holes at Aronimink ranked inside the top seven handicap holes for the week in 2010. The course has hardly altered at all since then and therefore it could be surmised that a series of pars over the closing holes could clinch victory this week.

This would probably explain why the pre-tournament favourite is none other than Nick Watney 14/1. Lying 5th in the FEDEXCUP leaderboard, Watney finished tied for seventh here last year, tied for 13th at the Travelers Championship, he sits 13th in greens hit, sixth in the all-around and 10th in bogey avoidance.

Watney will be very hard to beat, but if anyone is going to challenge my tip would have to be Ryan Moore 20/1. He comes to the event after a disappointing, however excellent co-runner-up at the Travelers Championship, where he shot two 64s and a closing 63. Added to this the American came tied second here as well in 2010 and so possesses the two key ingredients of current form as well as course knowledge.

Tournament Threesomes.

The stand out value for me in the opening round threesomes at the AT&T comes in Threesome B.

12:30pm               13/8 Bo Van Pelt               13/8 Webb Simpson       15/8 Kevin Streelman

For me the 13/8 that can be had in this match-up on Bo Van Pelt is a great price on a golfer who arrives at Aronimink with four consecutive top 15s, including a T13 at the Travelers Championship. The 6ft 4 American tied 11th last year and personally I believe he will be too good Simpson and Streelman.

With 11 major winners in the field this long course is sure to test their resolve, patience and scrambling ability as they warm-up for the 140th Open Championship in Sandwich. A storm is set to freshen up the course in Pennsylvania early in the week, however it will have past by Thursday leaving us with non-stop coverage starting live at 13:30 on Sky Sports 3.

 

 
 
 

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