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Michael Taylor 9th Sep 2009 - 14:27

Cabrera can break PGA Tour duck at Cog Hill

The BMW Championship returns to Cog Hill, Illinois, for the third leg of the FedEx Cup play-offs and, while Tiger Woods is a worthy favourite, Angel Cabrera could be the better bet to land a first PGA Tour title.

Despite registering two major wins in his successful career, Cabrera has yet to conquer the PGA Tour but, at 45/1 and in great form, a deserved victory would be particularly sweet for faithful punters.

The truth is he could have broken his PGA duck twice alone in the past few weeks with impressive top five finishes at the Bridgestone and last week's Deutsch Bank championship.

His swing is in perfect order, his mind is focused on the game and, as he showed by winning an Augusta play-off earlier this year, he's one of the coolest customers around when sniffing around at the top of the leaderboard.

His closing round 65 at the Deutsch Bank on Sunday offers more than enough encouragement for me especially since the rejuvenated Cog Hill Course, with its lightening fast greens, is likely to be even more suited to his game.

As with every tournament Tiger shows up at though, any outsider bets heavily rely on the world number one not quite reaching his brilliant best - and there is reason to suggest this could be the case this time.

Ever since his return from injury the doubters have been out in force and, while a couple of Tour titles show he's still the main man, you can easily argue that some facets of his game are not quite right.

He's missing more fairways and more putts than ever before and, even though he's generally there or there abouts, he carries little value at 15/8 - except of course if he does win.

If I was looking to the top of the betting I am more likely to plump for either Padraig Harrington or Steve Stricker - two of the hottest players on the planet right now.

Steve Stricker has never been shorter than 10/1 prior to a FedEx Cup event yet he more than justifies it this time around after his brilliant Deutsch Bank triumph.

A second round, one over par never deterred the classy American and he now has confidence and form carrying over as he attempts to further the gap between himself and the pack in the FedEx standings - another win could also bring the prospect of being named PGA Player of the Year even closer.

As for Harrington - a 12/1 shot here - he is one man who really does deserve to win after months of coming so close but yet so far.

If golf was played over three and a half days then Harrington would surely have mopped up recently, however, and he needs to remove this bug-bear as soon as possible, he has been overwhelmingly guilty of choking.

The Bridgestone Invitational, The Barclays and, most famously, the PGA Championship saw him throw it all away with final round horror showings - his fourth place at the Deutsch was not exactly a perfect example of closing a round out either.

But, he will win, and it will be soon, whether it's this week remains to be seen though.

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