Jerry to spring a shock in The Tour Championship
The FedEx Cup finale, The Tour Championship gets underway this week and punters firstly need to ask themselves whether it is worth backing Tiger Woods at odds of 11/10?
Woods destroyed the field at Cog Hill last time out in the BMW and he won here at East Lake in 2007 when shooting a stunning 23 under over the four days which puts him as usual as a prime contender for this.
However due to his record overall, (two wins from 11 starts), he is worth taking on at the prohibitive odds and the question is which of the 29 other runners can challenge the world number one at a decent price?
Some will seek an alternative in the second and third favourites, Jim Furyk and Padraig Harrington at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively.
Furyk always plays his game here with his best result a second in 2006 and came second last time out to ensure he should be there abouts, while Harrington also has come in to form recently but his record at The Tour Championship is nothing to shout about and both are best swerved at the prices but we wouldn't put anyone off backing the Irishman at 9/4 in the top International Player market.
To the surprise of some, our first pick is at odds of 70/1 and comes in the shape of American veteran Jerry Kelly who was desperately keen to get in to this tournament when he heard he had a chance and he has been rewarded after holing a 10 footer at Cog Hill to seal his place here.
Kelly has form in this tournament having finished 3rd in 2004, 13th in 2003 and 4th in 2002 and one factor massively in his favour is that the greens have been changed from bentgrass to Bermuda and this is the same as in Louisiana where he won the Zurich Classic this year.
He still looks in good heart having been two shots off the lead with a round to play in the Deutsche Bank Championship before a poor last round and his obvious liking for this event and keenness to do well stands him in good stead to give us a run for our money at a big price.
With a lot of forecast rain we look to the big hitters for our second pick as if a lot of driving action is needed in the poor weather then it becomes a different game and it could be one of the big boys that benefits.
Out of 40/1 chance Angel Cabrera (seventh in driving distance), 40/1 Dustin Johnson (third in driving distance) and 50/1 Nick Watney (sixth in driving distance) we plump for the biggest price of the three, Watney.
None of these three have played in this tournament before but all have a mighty drive that can combat the forecast thunder and lightning while Watney has slipped to what is now a very backable price.
On his form at the start of the season you would be lucky to get 25/1 about the American, and while he has not recaptured that early season form just yet, he is playing well enough to be competitive as a sixth place in the Barclays demonstrated a couple of weeks ago.
He is not totally without experience here having played in 2001 in US Amateur where he played well, even better in fact than last year's winner Camilo Villegas.
Watney has also won in Louisiana on Bermuda greens in 2007 so had a fair few factors in his favour that should ensure a bold display at 50/1.
It is going to be a big ask for anyone to stop Tiger in his current mood but his average record and short price make him opposable, but for those who do want to swerve the favourite, Kelly and Watney are available at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively in the top USA without Woods market, just one of a host of markets William Hill are offering on The Tour Championship.
Nick Watney - 50/1
Jerry Kelly - 70/1