Greyhound Derby preview - Round Three
William Hill's odds compiler Ian Magor gives us his views on Saturday's Third Round heats of the williamhill.com Derby. Every single heat of the Derby can be watched, for free, live on William Hill TV.
The second round proved nowhere near as lucrative as the first with a profit of just 53p at sp with £10 invested on each selection, making a total of £144.73 on the competition to date. I think the favourite has a good chance in every heat tonight but I went into the competition convinced that there would be shocks throughout and I am mixing up the favourites with a few value options to keep things interesting.
Mesedo Blue showed much more alacrity from the lids last week than in his first look at the track and ran out a comfortable, impressive winner. I think there is still plenty more to come and if he continues that improvement tonight he could be heading the market going into Tuesday’s critical quarter-finals. Moneygall Obama has shown plenty of pace in both rounds so far without enjoying much luck in running. If Seamus Graham’s blue does fail to fire he is well placed to take advantage but I fancy the favourite’s early zip to prove decisive.
Ministry Magic is a young dog with a big reputation, gradually improving through his trials and competitive races at the track. Nambisco ran really well chasing home Forest Boss last week when failing to lead but he comes here fresh from picking up the Scottish Derby and must be running at his peak. At the prices, the potential for significant improvement makes Lorraine Sams’ charge the selection.
Bandicoot Tipoki’s supporters could hardly have framed better races for him in the competition to date and provided he avoids the unlikely scenario of getting tangled up with Barnfield Rocky in the run to the first, there is then no rational obstacle to him extending his unbeaten record.
People have accused me of falling in love with Krug Ninety Five. I fancy him for the competition and I have threatened to fly the dog off to Vegas and marry him if he proves to be successful. The prospect of this might well stop him in his tracks tonight, but aside from that the draw in 1 looks ideal in this field and I think he can win again, even if Barefoot Bullet turns in front. K95 has shown the best back-straight pace I have seen from any dog and I fully expect our courtship to continue at least for a while.
Judicial Pause is probably not quite as good a dog as Ten Large Down at this stage but he is open to huge improvement, probably has a better draw – although no-one seems to agree which trap best suits TLD – and is a much bigger price. On that basis he has to be the selection. He would have to hold the stripes off around the first bend and if the two do come together and spoil each other’s chances, Oran Classic and Tyrur Speedy should be best placed to take advantage.
After watching repeated replays of the first two rounds I am confident that Tranquil Time will be seen at his best from trap 3. With three wide runners outside him and a limited amount of early pace amongst the competition, for me he only has to avoid Eye Onthe Tempo to secure victory and he is a good bet to do so.
Roo Come On has looked the fastest dog from the boxes in the competition so far and that makes things difficult for Sevenheads Bay. Toomaline Jack really attacks the bend and he looks set to go round here second at worst; from that point I have seen nothing so far to make me consider defeat as a very slim possibility.
Lyreen Mover has shown blistering early pace so far and should be able to lead down the far side. I still think he remains vulnerable to a strong finisher and Slick Robert has shown enough in his first couple of runs to suggest that he might yet be capable of a run that could shake up the ante-post market. He is a speculative selection to do just that tonight.