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Nic Ladds 18th Apr 2009 - 10:32

Bath can take the plunge in to the top four

Newcastle take on Bath in the Guinness Premiership in what is a crucial game for the away side in what could be a classic with both sides at odds of 10/11 in the betting.

Unsurprisingly the handicap is set at 0 so just like the match betting the odds of each side is 10/11.

The match odds represent just how tight this could be with Bath chasing a top four place and while it would appear Newcastle have little to play for, they are unbeaten at Kingston Park since November of last year.

This is their last game and they will want to finish the season on a high, having been knocked out of the EDF Energy trophy in the quarterfinals.

Bath have two games left and need to win them both and they have made it no secret that they will be going for all important bonus points, which means they will be attacking from the off.

If The Falcons are to win it is unlikely it will be by much as chances are they will have defended as if their lives depended on it and scored a breakaway try or two.

Winning margins of 1-5 and 6-10 in their favour looks about right if you do fancy the home side at odds of 9/2 and 11/2 respectively.

Bath are looking to run in at least four tries to get the bonus point and if they manage this then they could win by a fair bit so a wager on 11-15 points at 8/1 or 16-20 points at 12/1 may be worth a look.

If you do fancy Bath to triumph then an alternative handicap could appeal with the away side available at 6/4 giving up five points with Newcastle 1/2 in receipt of five.

It is hard to pin point exactly how The Falcons will handle the inevitable onslaught Bath will deliver so a safer bet could be backing the away side to win by 1-12 points at a decent looking 21/10.

For a try scorer bet Danny Williams and Tim Visser are both 10/1 to go over first for the home side with Andrew Higgins and Matt Banahan also 10/1 for the visitors.

Two of interest are Jamie Noon at 14/1 for first try or 5/2 to score anytime for Newcastle and the league's top scorer Joe Maddock 16/1 for first and 3/1 to score anytime.

Maddock is starting at full-back which may limit his options to an extent but Bath will look to get forward to much that he could easily sneak on the score sheet which makes the anytime try price of 3/1 appealing.

While Newcastle are undoubtedly a tough team to beat at home the feeling is Bath are really going to go for this and will ultimately have too much for The Falcons.

If Butch James is on a going day then he will be instrumental in Bath's build up and execution and this could devastate the Newcastle defence.

In the hope that he is, Bath are fancied to get the win they so dearly need and make the season finale a real nail-biter.

Recommendations:
Joe Maddock to score a try anytime - 3/1
Bath to win by 1-12 points - 21/10

Don't miss this thrilling game which can be seen on Sunday at 15:45 live on Sky Sports 1

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