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Nic Ladds 18th Sep 2009 - 19:48

Falcons set for crash landing at Welford Road

Leicester Tigers renew their love affair with Welford Road in the Guinness Premiership as they entertain Newcastle Falcons and they are as short as 1/7 to record a victory.

The Tigers have had a quiet start to the season by their high standards with a win and a loss but they are yet to score a try.

They have won their last 15 matches at Welford Road in all competitions and their chances are further elevated by the stats when you consider the last seven meetings between these two have been won by the home side which mean it will take a brave man to get on the 4/1 about Newcastle.

The handicap has Leicester giving up 13 points at 10/11 with Newcastle also 10/11 in receipt of the 13 points and given the calibre of the Tigers this looks a fair line given how devastating they could be once they find their rhythm.

The Falcons have drawn their first two games which may have punters covering the draw at 25/1 but it is worth noting no team has ever drawn three successive Premiership games.

The Tigers make four changes, all in the forwards due to injuries while Newcastle make three changes, most notably junior All Black centre Tane Tu'ipulotu returning after missing the first two games.

The New Zealander can be backed at 16/1 to score the first try while a wager on Gcobani Bobo to go over first at 11/1 looks a fair bit as the South African will be playing on the wing.

Leicester will be desperate to get their first try of the season on the board in front of their own fans and Scott Hamilton and Johne Murphy are both 9/1 to get it but at a bigger price it is Geordan Murphy at 14/1 who catches the eye for those wanting first try scorer punt.

As the handicap suggests the winning margin in favour of the home side could be substantial with 16-20 and 11-15 points sharing favouritism at 9/2 while a bet on something like 26-30 could be worth an investment at 9/1 if you really fancy the Tigers to hand out a beating.

It is hard to see anything but a home victory but the margin may not be quite as great as some may think.

The Falcons have not conceded many points so far and while their defence will be working overtime, they may be able to keep the score respectable.

The handicap looks about right and a play on a winning margin of 6-10 points to the home side at 11/2 could be the call in what could well be a platform for Leicester to build on as they begin to mount their usual title challenge.


Leicester to win by 6-10 points - 11/2


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