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Nic Ladds 7th Aug 2009 - 13:16

Outlook gloomy for Australia in the Rainbow State

South Africa have marched through their first two games against New Zealand impressively and are at odds of 2/7 to see off Australia although these 5/2 shots may give the Springboks a fair bit to think about.

Australia have been priced up at odds of 10/11 receiving an eight point head start which looks fair enough when you consider that they lost to New Zealand in their first game and what brilliant form South Africa are in.

The Springboks are also 10/11 giving up the eight points and many may think this is an absolute steal but the Wallabies are a different side to the All Blacks and have a kicking game to rival South Africa's.

Berrick Barnes and Matt Giteau have the ability to rival Morne Steyn and Frans Steyn although they lack some of the power of these two but in Stirling Mortlock they have an excellent long range goal kicker.

These three are absolutely key for Australia as if they can weave their magic and cunning like they did in the first half against New Zealand then they can give the Springboks a real fright.

Mortlock incidentally is 14/1 to score the first try with Giteau at 16/1 and with continued questions over the team's fitness as they seem to start incredibly well then fade in the last quarter of the game, these two will be looking to make that crucial early break through.

South Africa will not be fazed though by early Aussie points as they came back against New Zealand last time later on and did so when facing the Lions time and time again and they do not know the meaning of beaten.

Baring in mind the Wallabies are fast starters, they could be the value pick in the race to ten points market at a generous looking 6/4 as they managed this fairly swiftly against New Zealand, and time and again the Springboks have come back later on in the game which gives them little appeal at 1/2 in this market.

Australia may find this simply too tough and like most other teams they look set to be overwhelmed in the scrum by the beasts in the South African pack, however unlike New Zealand, the away side have nothing to fear in the line out and should be able to match the home team in that area.

The statistics are against them, as the Aussies have won just three of their last nine visits to South Africa while another interesting stat shows that of the last 11 matches in South Africa between these two, seven have gone to the home side by 1-12 points.

This points to a bet on either the dozen winning margins market in favour of the Springboks with 1-12 at odds of 7/4 or a margin of 6-10 points is 9/2 or 1-5 points is 11/2.

Morne Steyn will look to continue his stunning form with the boot and ball after he scored all the points against the All Blacks and you wouldn't bet against him scoring a try at 3/1, with Bryan Habana at 6/4 or captain John Smit who has looked dangerous with ball in hand could be worth a wager at 10/1 to cross the line anytime.

This will not be the beating that the match odds suggest but South Africa look a solid bet to cover the handicap. Australia are more cunning than New Zealand and have enough tricks and confidence under high ball to deal with some of what South Africa have to offer.

A wager on Australia to score the first team try at 6/5 for an early lead but the South Africa to turn it around and end up winning by a confident margin of around 10 points, and Morne Steyn is hard to ignore in the anytime try scorer market given his current blistering form.


First team try Australia - 6/5

Morne Steyne to score a try - 3/1

South Africa to win by 6-10 points - 9/2

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