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Stuart Dalgleish 1st Jul 2010 - 16:01

Berdych is buzzing, but the Djoker will have the last laugh

Tomas Berdych (evens to win the match, 11/2 for the tournament) did the unthinkable and knocked the defending champion Roger Federer out of Wimbledon before the semi-finals.

The reward for the Czech ace is a match against Novak Djokovic (4/5 match, 9/2 tournament) for a place in the Wimbledon final.

He's lost both his previous clashes with the soon-to-be world number two, and I expect that record to stretch to three on Friday.

While there's not much doubting Berdych is a quality player and he's likely to break into the top ten any time soon, that was just one of those days where everything fell into place against Federer and I don't think a repeat will be likely against Djokovic.

The Serbian only has the one title to his name so far this year but he's looked impressive all the way through Wimbledon, he was taken to five sets in the opening round where he had to show great battling qualities to beat Rochus under the roof but since then has barely been troubled.

His weapon is his backhand which is one of the most elegant in the game but he's also a tremendous returner of serve which is what should make this match a cracker.

Berdych is a really fast server and is always guaranteed plenty of aces, he's also got an incredible 85% record of points won when his first serve is in.

All this could lead could to a few tiebreaks, it's 9/20 for there to be a breaker in the match but 43/20 for the 1st set to go the distance, that could be the value bet as both players get their eye in early in the match.

I would also be looking at 4 sets in the match which is available at 11/8, but if like me you're confident that it'll be the Serb appearing in Sunday's final then 3-1 to him in the set betting market looks really tempting at 16/5 (3-1 to Berdych is 4/1), which could also make over 42.5 games in the match look good at 5/6 if indeed there is a tiebreak or two.

After Berdych's appearance in the semis at Roland Garros it can't be viewed as a huge surprise to see him in the last four at SW19, but Djokovic has much more experience of these big matches as he's appeared in seven Grand Slam semi-finals and has reached the quarters or better in all but two of his last 14 Majors, that will be the key in Friday's match for me.

Any nerves that Berdych might show will be clinically punished by the Serb as he looks to try overtake Nadal at the top of the rankings.

 

 
 
 

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