Is Stan the man? - Roland Garros Mens final preview
Wow - What a semi-final spread over 2 days won eventually by Novak Djokovic over Andy Murray in 5 thrilling sets of Tennis.
Djokovic (1/7) now meets Stan Wawrinka (5/1) in the final on Sunday afternoon. The question we need to consider is just how much has that epic with Murray taken out of Djokovic both mentally and physically. Whilst there was only a set and a half played today by Djokovic, it's still a day which he would mentally been prepared to maybe have a gentle practice much like Wawrinka has been able to do today, add to that all the press he will have had to do after the match and I know which player will likely feel the freshest coming onto court Sunday.
Looking at the 6 matches they have both played during the fortnight there a some striking similarities in just how easily they have progressed through the draw - both players have only given up a total of 2 sets and have beaten relatively easily the seeded players they have met along the way. Whilst Djokovic has the added pressure of trying the achieve what only 7 other players have done in the history of the game, that winning all 4 of the Grand Slam singles titles, Wawrinka has himself already got an Australian Open title to his name, so shouldn't be as nervous as if he was trying to win his maiden title.
Previous meetings between the players have gone in favour of Djokovic who holds a not insignificant 17-3 H2H lead over the Swiss player. On the clay Djokovic leads the series 5-1 (although the sole victory for Wawrinka came in the form of a Djokovic retirement back in 2006), so not much in the favour of Wawrinka in these stats. However the really telling stat in my mind is that they have met 5 times in best of 5 set matches (4 Grand Slams and a Davis Cup tie) and every time the match has gone to the deciding set, indeed there is a 12-10 final set victory, and a 9-7 final set victory in these matches so there is absolutely no reason this match should not be any different.
When we bear in mind all these factors the match looks like it should be close to me and I see the match going at least 4 sets if not to the full 5.
The 5/1 about Wawrinka looks appealing as a value selection given the stats, as does the 9/2 that the match goes the full distance of 5 sets. If you like something with a shorter price why not try both players to win a set (11/10), even if we only go 4 sets you're on a winner here.
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