Where's the value at Wimbledon?
Mark Young searches for the best tennis bets for the upcoming Grand Slam tournament.
Monday sees the pinnacle of the grass court tennis season come to SW19, Wimbledon for the third Grand Slam of the year.
Rafael Nadal is the 5/2 Wimbledon favourite after his victory in the French Open and will have plenty of backers as will the 2/1 about grass court genius, Roger Federer. Before a French Open defeat by Federer, Djokovic was on a 43-game unbeaten streak, 41 in 2011 and his odds of 4/1 will still be popular.
Britain has a real hope in Andy Murray (7/1) but he will have to overcome the impressive Novak Djokovic and centre court veterans Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. It is a tough task for the Scot but he does come into the tournament in some good form after a questionable start to the season. He won in the Wimbledon warm up at Queens with a two sets to one victory in the final against Jo Wilfred Tsonga.
The problem with the Queens win is that the final took place on a Monday. John McEnroe and Boris Becker had both previously won Monday finals and were eliminated early on in the Wimbledon the following week. This would suggest that betting on Murray should be avoided and he is a bit short with the form of Djokovic and Nadal and Federer’s prowess on grass.
The value markets could be in quarter betting. Andy Murray flatters to deceive in Grand Slam’s; he is 4/7 to win his quarter but has some tough opposition in his part of the draw. Andy Roddick (7/2), Richard Gasquet (10/1) and Gael Monfils (16/1) are his closest challengers in this section and should all be watched carefully.
Murray thrashed Roddick at Queens and would be the favourite if they were to meet again at SW19. The value here could be Richard Gasquet. He was injured for last season’s tournament and after being sidelined for a spell could be trouble for Murray. He has already defeated Roddick and Jurgen Melzer back to back this year and lost to Novak Djokovic in the fourth round of the French Open. There is always a surprise at Wimbledon and Gasquet could be this season’s.
In Roger Federer’s quarter of the draw there is only one big threat for the Swiss master’s place in the semi finals. Jo Wilfred Tsonga’s form prior to Wimbledon is impressive, only just losing out to Andy Murray. The powerful Frenchman would be a risk to take on as he sometimes feels the pressure of the big occasion where as Federer would thrive. Tsonga is 11/2 to win the quarter.
Rafael Nadal has a couple of challengers in the lanky Spaniard, Juan Martin Del Potro (6/1) and Thomas Berdych (5/1) but it would be a brave man to oppose the 2/5 on Nadal. Del Potro could be a good each way bet but the draw has not really worked in his favour.
Djokovic at 1/4 is another one of the top four who only has one real challenger for a semi final spot. Robin Soderling is 3/1 to reach the semis and has the potential to cause an upset but if Djokovic carries on any kind of form from before the Federer defeat the Serb should have no problems.
The safest bet at Wimbledon could be for a Nadal v Federer final at 5/2 and there would be no complaints around SW19 if that was to happen. A repeat of the epic final of 2008 would be a treat.
One thing is for sure that there will be the patriotic bets for Murray outright, but he will have to overcome the competition of the in form player in Djokovic and two of the greatest players the world has ever seen in Nadal and Federer. It is a tough ask but this still won’t put punters off.