Genesis Invitational preview: Nau is the time for Tony to go one better

Last week on the PGA Tour saw yet another outsider winning making it six weeks’ worth of unexpected twists and turns so far this season, with picking a winner seemingly harder this season than ever before.

We came close last week as Scottie Scheffler finished up in third, whilst our 300/1 selection from the Farmers Insurance, Charley Hoffman, ended up in a playoff with eventual winner Nick Taylor!

Judging by that, you might want to wait until next week before actually backing our selections… but nonetheless we’ve dug out two players from this star-studded field who we think could go well at the Riviera Country Club this week.

Find our picks for the Genisis Invitational below.

Tony Finau 25/1

Tony Finau may be more motivated than anyone taking to the Genisis Invitational this week given his bridesmaid’s record at the tournament. Finau has twice been runner-up here, even losing in a playoff in 2021, but is still yet to get his hands on the trophy.

We are yet to see vintage “Big Tone” for a full four rounds yet this year, but the closest we came was his T6 finish at the Farmers Insurance, where a third round 74 scuppered his chances at challenging for the win.

Hitting a long, accurate ball is going to be important here, although accuracy off the tee is not so important, it is the irons which can make or break your tournament. Finau is Scheffler-esque in that he is an elite ball striker with a putter that seems to repel the hole, but just getting the ball on the green more consistently than others could allow him some leeway should the flatstick escape him again.

Boasting the eighth-longest drive on the tour on average, Finau will have no problem getting down there off the tee, whilst his ranking of third for greens in regulation percentage means he should be able to get onto even the longest of par fours in two.

Now, drive for show putt for dough is the obvious antidote to these ball-striking statistics, and Finau will certainly have to earn his keep on the greens if he is to emerge victorious this week. At 25/1 he offers good value as one of the bigger names and certainly better talents in the field. His skills from tee-to-green should be enough to see him into the seven places on offer with William Hill, whilst even minor improvements with the putter could easily push him towards top spot.

Keegan Bradley 55/1

Our outsider selection this week comes in the form of the American Keegan Bradley, although outsiders are if anything more likely to win on the PGA Tour so far this year, so are they really outsiders…? Anyway.

As far as the betting market is concerned, Bradley finds himself in the chasing pack, amongst the “best of the rest” section, with his 55/1 price leaving him adrift of the real frontrunners, but noticeably shorter than those who seemingly have no real chance.

This is where we find our value as someone like Keegan Bradley, who has consistently chipped away on the PGA Tour since he turned pro in 2008, can easily fly under the radar. The fact that he has missed the cut at this tournament in five of his 13 appearances would be enough to put most off, but it is his T4 finish in 2015 and playoff loss in 2012 that keep us interested.

He has been notoriously inconsistent at this tournament, with his first six appearances delivering two missed cuts along with four T20 finishes, quite the mixed bag. Having missed two cuts, alongside a T60 and T48 in his last four outings here, this year could be his time to turn the tide once again.

He has had a positive enough start to 2024, including another agonising playoff defeat at the Sony Open in January, as well as a T11 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last time out. He also appears to be striking the ball nicely this year, ranking inside the top 30 for strokes gained in multiple areas including from tee-to-green, approaching the green, greens in regulation percentage and approaches from inside 100 yards.

He has all the tools to get himself to the green without too much trouble, which could be crucial given the copious amount of gruelling bunkers and treacherous areas around the greens at the Riviera Country Club. He could well strike himself into place contention early on, then it will come down to whether he has the nerve to stay there – given his experience, we think he just might.