UK General Election: Latest Odds Changes

The UK General Election is fast approaching with the public set to go to the polls on 4th July and it looks likely we could see a change of leadership in Number 10.

We look over the key UK General Election odds changes and trends.

Labour shortest price ever for election win

Labour appear to hold the aces ahead of this election, with Keir Starmer’s party overwhelming favourites at an incredibly short 1/100 to return to power for the first time since 2010, and are 1/33 to achieve a majority.

You have to go back over two years to find the last time Labour were odds-against to achieve the most seats in the General Election, and since the very brief term of Liz Truss, Labour’s price has only shortened.

Labour were 4/5 to win most seats when Liz Truss assumed office on 6th September 2022. They hit 1/14 early in 2024, they were 1/33 when the election was announced as the 4th of July and are now 1/100.

Labour are also forecast to win more seats than ever before, with the party 10/11 to win more than 428 seats, which would surpass the 418 they managed when Tony Blair was first elected in 1997.

Scotland has been a thorn in Labour’s side in recent years, with the party virtually wiped out by the SNP in 2019 as they held on to only one constituency. However, with the SNP’s popularity on the wane, they are tipped for a resurgence and are just 1/5 to win most seats north of the border.

In short, everything points to a red landslide come July 4th.

Conservatives on course for worst result ever

In the Labour landslide election victory of 1997 the Conservatives won 165 seats – a 30.7% vote share – which stands as their worst result since 1918.

Rishi Sunak’s party may have to ready themselves for an even more chastening defeat on July 4th though, as they are predicted to win fewer than 100 seats for the first time, with odds of 4/7 that they win fewer than 99.5 seats.

The Conservatives’ odds of winning most seats have been in spiralling decline for nearly two years. When Liz Truss assumed office, they were odds-on at 10/11, but following her very brief term, their odds have drifted dramatically. They were 7/4 to win most seats when Rishi Sunak entered Number 10 on 25th October 2022, but with growing inflation and other pressures in 2023 their odds hit 6/1 for the first time. That trend has continued out to their current position of 25/1, which leaves them tied in the market with Reform UK.

Reform UK set to upset mainstream parties

Reform UK have seen a surge of support in the betting since former UKIP leader Nigel Farage announced that he would lead the party into the next General Election in early June.

Nigel Farage has never been elected as an MP in seven previous attempts but he looks likely to make it eighth time lucky as he is just 1/8 to win the Clacton seat, with Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul his nearest challenger at 6/1.

Reform were as big as 40/1 to win most seats just a few months ago and that has shortened into 25/1, but more interestingly in the vote share market they are closing the gap on the Conservatives.

One major poll put Reform ahead of the Tories as the main opposition to Labour recently, and they are 8/11 to achieve 17% or more of the vote, while the Conservatives are priced at 4/5 to win less than a 22% vote share.

That suggests that Reform are set to take votes from both major parties this election.

Check out all the latest Politics betting at William Hill