Donald Trump v Kamala Harris polls

As the nation braces for Election Day in the US, the final hours of campaigning for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris bring a whirlwind of rallies, last-minute speeches and strategic moves to sway any remaining undecided voters.

The intensity couldn’t be any higher with less than 24 hours to go, as betting markets reveal a razor-thin margin between the two candidates, a dynamic that’s keeping everyone on edge from political analysts to your average voter.

With polls showing fluctuating leads in key battleground states, both Trump and Harris are pulling out all the stops, focusing heavily on swing states where even a small shift in sentiment could be decisive. Betting odds have been fluctuating daily, reflecting the volatile nature of this election and showing just how close the contest remains as it reaches the business end.

Below we take a look at the most recent polling data to see who’s favoured where and what that means when the nation goes to the polls.

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Polling Average

As of November 4th, Kamala Harris is leading in the polls at 49% as she has done since the end of August, but Trump has slowly caught up rising up to 48% from 46%. As it stands currently, the polls show this is one of the closest US presidential elections in the history of American politics.

Neither candidate has a particular stronghold on key battlegrounds collectively or nationwide, with less than one percent separating the two in each.

Swing States

In the seven key swing states which usually give a rather good indication of what the result could be, Trump leads in three, Harris in one, with the other three looking very evenly matched according to the polls.

Trump and Harris are evenly contesting Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina at the moment, with Harris edging it by less than 1% in Wisconsin. Trump marginally leads by less than 1% in both Nevada and Georgia, but has a significant cushion of 4% in Arizona.

Based on the current polls in these key swing states, neither candidate has a big enough lead to reach 270 electoral votes, which is a majority, with the polls in the closest states essentially tied. Based on this projection, Harris would be expected to pick up 251 electoral votes, with Trump expected to receive 268.

If the polls underestimate Trump however, he could pick up as many as 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 226. That said, if it went the other way around and the polls were in Harris’ favour, then she’d be on 292 votes to Trump’s 246.

Can the polls be wrong?

The polling numbers are by no means indicative of the election outcome and more often than not they don’t match the final results, and in some cases, they miss by considerable amounts. The nature of this election, however, and how close the polling is on the eve of the election, does show that on paper that the race is evenly matched. That said, Trump was underestimated in the polls in both 2016 and 2020 and this could again be the case this year.

Harris has clawed it back since taking over from Joe Biden, though, and has made up 35% in the polls cumulatively across all seven of the swing states, and 3% nationwide against Trump. The race now remains at a deadlock.