UEFA Nations League Preview: Who Will Qualify from the Group Stage?

International football is back, and as the UEFA Nations League enters its final stages, the excitement is building.

With two crucial games remaining in each group, we take a look at the upcoming fixtures, the teams aiming to progress, and the odds on who will make it to the finals.

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New Format

This year, the UEFA Nations League has introduced a new twist to its format. Instead of the traditional setup where the four group winners from League A automatically advanced to the Final Four, teams must now face the second-placed sides in a home and away quarter-final knockout. Here’s how the groups are shaping up.

League A

Group A1

Portugal are in prime position to win Group A1, sitting at the top with 10 points after an unbeaten run in their opening four matches. With Cristiano Ronaldo still a key figure despite his age, Portugal are 9/2 to win the Nations League outright.

Their next challenge comes on Friday when they host Poland. Portugal are strong favourites at 1/5, while Poland’s chances are priced at 10/1.

Meanwhile, Scotland face Croatia in the other Group A1 fixture. Scotland, with just one point from four games, will need a win to stay alive in the competition. Croatia sit second with seven points, and are the favourites at 21/10, while Scotland’s odds are 21/10.

Group A2

In Group A2, Italy will travel to Belgium in a pivotal matchup. Belgium, playing at home, are slight favourites at 6/4, while Italy are priced at 9/5.

Italy currently top the group with 10 points, but they aren’t the favourites to finish first. That honour goes to France, who are priced at 4/9 to top the group as they face Israel at home. Both teams are strong contenders for the tournament, with France at 9/2 and Italy at 6/1 to win the Nations League outright.

Group A3

Group A3 sees Germany host Bosnia & Herzegovina, and the Netherlands take on Hungary on Saturday night. Germany, with a squad brimming with talent like Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, are heavy favourites at 1/20 to beat Bosnia. Germany are also second favourites to win the Nations League outright at 4/1.

In the other match, the Netherlands are priced at 7/20 to defeat Hungary, a team that could prove a tricky opponent but still remains the underdog in this match.

Group A4

As the current holders, having defeated Croatia in the 2023 final, Spain are looking to defend their title. Fresh off their European Championship victory, they enter the competition as 3/1 favourites to retain the crown. Spain’s next match sees them travel to Denmark on Friday night, where they are priced at 4/5. Denmark are a tough side to beat at home but that price could provide value.

In the other Group A4 fixture, Switzerland host Serbia. Switzerland are 7/10 favourites, while Serbia are 18/5 to cause an upset.

England: Aiming for Redemption in League B

England are currently in League B after being relegated from League A in the 2022-23 Nations League. Despite their underwhelming performance in the previous campaign, where they failed to win a single match—including a humiliating 4-0 defeat to Hungary—England are focused on bouncing back and securing a spot in the top league for the next edition.

This break sees England travel to Greece on Thursday night, where they are 17/20 favourites to win. Greece are priced at 16/5 to cause an upset. While England have struggled to impress under interim manager Lee Carsley, the team will be looking forward to the arrival of Thomas Tuchel as the permanent manager in 2025.

However, England’s squad for this break is severely depleted. Eight players have withdrawn, including key figures like Trent Alexander-Arnold, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Declan Rice, and Bukayo Saka, due to injury concerns.