Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Welsh National Day Preview

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Friday’s action from Kempton and Chepstow, including the Welsh National.

Kempton, Friday

DELLA CASA LUNGA is a confident enough shout to lift the TV opener at Kempton on Friday (1.20). She ran a tidy race when overmatched here last time and, with a wind op under her belt, should go very close of repeating that effort. She’ll bowl along in front and could take a bit of stopping on this ground.

SIR GINO can accomplish a stern mission on his chasing debut (1.55). Put simply, I’m not convinced there’s a horse in training who could give him six pounds and a beating. What’s more, his trainer is clearly itching to get him jumping fences and his running style and pedigree is significantly more about two-mile speed than his main market rival Ballyburn. Rubaud is not completely discounted given his effectiveness around here on good ground.

BOOTHILL looks a fair shout in the Desert Orchid (2.30). He and Edwardstone both ran fine races in the Shloer before the latter capitulated in the Tingle Creek, but the key to the selection is surely the ground, which can’t be quick enough. Add to that the idea that he improved a bit for the wind op in the summer, and this doesn’t look beyond him off this mark. Editeur Du Gite would look a very big danger if finding any sort of form – the handicapper has cut him some serious slack.

BASS ROCK is a bit of a flyer in a tough looking handicap (3.08). Frero Banbou is the obvious one here, but I’m  sure I can trust him to win two on the bounce. The selection looked a serious prospect at one point for Sandy Thomson before the wheels fell off, but they looked half back on for the new yard at Ludlow and – if he can build on that and sharpen up his jumping – he has the talent to win a race like this off this mark.

Chepstow, Friday

CAN YOU CALL looks a reasonable idea in the first of the TV races at Chepstow (1.05). He’s no star, but a fair tool at this level, has needed a couple of sharpeners this season (last time much better) and has been given a major chance at the weights despite not having obviously declined that much. The stable had had a quiet enough season but is beginning to gently splutter into form.

NIETZSCHE HAS is a solid favourite in the Finale Hurdle (1.40). This isn’t the strongest group of Graded juveniles we can muster, and the selection isn’t far off the best of his generation in France. This is an important final staging post before he begins a stud career, and he should be odds-on.

MADAKET looks a sound proposition in the handicap hurdle (2.10). He looked in good form in a comparable race at Newbury on his comeback, shaping as though an even stiffer test would suit. This track should provide that… indeed, his only previous visit here was a winning one.

JUBILEE EXPRESS seems a likely one in the Welsh National (2.50), a race with disappointingly little depth. He is completely unexposed, looks to have bottomless stamina, and comes from a fine family of quality staying chasers back in the pedigree. His trainer has proved most adept at readying horses for serious targets, and another three pounds from this rider is frankly a bit of a gift. I’m hoping another summer and a bit more schooling has ironed out his tendency to belt one, as he’s fundamentally a pretty sound jumper. Val Dancer can give him most to think about.