None of the last four Prime Ministers have lasted more than three years and 45 days and just one of the last six has managed to compete two elections.
Keir Starmer has an overwhelming majority after Labour’s landslide victory in 2024, but polling has Labour pretty much neck and neck with Reform and the Conservatives. Despite such a clear victory, Labour’s share of the vote was only 33.7% less than three million more than the Conservatives.
The latest election odds also make Reform the online betting favourites to claim the Runcorn and Helsby seat from Labour when a by-election takes place later this year.
While the circumstances (Mike Amesbury committed assault last year) play a part in Reform’s position as odds-on favourites, this also represents a continued surge for Nigel Farage’s party.
Farage Fancied For Next PM
Farage is the 9/4 favourite to be the next Prime Minister. Reform are polling at the same level as Labour and the Tories, yet the first-past-the-post system has worked against Farage’s various parties over the years.
With their support spread across the country, Reform got five seats with a 14.3% share of the vote last year. That’s the same number as the DUP, who had a 0.6% share. The Liberal Democrats had fewer total votes than Reform but finished with 67 more seats.
There’s enough time until the next election for Reform to try and build a winning foundation. Farage’s brand of populism is going to get more support as Labour make cuts, but it still feels like a very long path for Farage to become the next Prime Minister unless he manages to figurehead a Tory-Reform coalition.
Avoid Badenoch’s Current Price
The 9/2 price on Kemi Badenoch is far too short. It’s more likely the Tories change leader between now and the next election than Badenoch wins.
Disapproval has gradually increased since Badenoch replaced Rishi Sunak. The brand of right-wing politics pushed by Badenoch doesn’t create enough of a differential with the more charismatic, loyally followed Farage.
It may take longer than one election cycle for the Tories to recover from austerity, the shambles of Sunak, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss, and the mishandling of the pandemic.
More moderate Conservatives like James Cleverly (14/1) or Oliver Dowden (33/1) are better options if you think the Tories can win the next general election.
Ignore Tempting Boris Price
How is Boris Johnson 12/1 to be the next Prime Minister? Since his tenure, Johnson has been found to have misled the Commons and committed a clear breach of Parliamentary rules by not informing the appropriate committee about his columnist gig with the Daily Mail.
While he retains supporters in the Conservatives and around the country, there isn’t an appetite to see Johnson return to power. He’s not even an MP at the moment.
If – and it’s a huge if – Johnson were to return to Downing Street, it would require at least one more Prime Minister between Starmer’s time in charge and Johnson’s return. This 12/1 price doesn’t represent any value unless the Tories suddenly decide he is the only way they can beat Reform.
Labour Candidates
Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper are the favourites among Labour politicians to succeed Starmer as Prime Minister. Both could be considered a safe pair of hands if Starmer opts to leave the post before the next election.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has long been tipped as a future PM. Burnham would make sense as a candidate if Labour win the next election and he returns to the House of Commons in the process.
Well-supported in former Red Wall areas, Burnham would be a pragmatic selection who would bring more drive and radical thinking than Starmer offers. His 16/1 price is decent value, and a much better option than Angela Rayner or David Lammy are similar odds.
