Champions League Predictions

Who Will Be The Champions League Top Goal Scorer In 2024/25?

5 months ago

| BY Sam Cox

Raphinha tops the Champions League goal scoring charts ahead of the quarter-finals this week.

The Brazilian is one goal ahead of Harry Kane and Serhou Guirassy, making him the narrow Champions League betting favourite for the honour.

The maths has obviously changed for this season with each team playing two extra matches in the league phase and a selection of clubs enduring a two-legged playoff tie.

Kylian Mbappe, for instance, has already played 12 matches in the competition this season and could play five more if Real Madrid reach yet another final (which football odds indicate is a likely outcome).

Raphinha’s tally of 11 won’t be enough to finish at the competition’s top scorer this time around, even though it’s more than the top scorer had in 2023/24, 2020/21, and 2014/15. With a maximum of five matches left to play, anyone with seven or more goals has shot at getting into the teens.

The Frontrunners

Facing a Borussia Dortmund team languishing in mid-table of the Bundesliga, Barcelona have two of the top three in the latest Champions League top scorer odds. Guirassy, who has 10 goals in the competition so far, is at a longer price than Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, and Kane.

Barcelona are clear favourites over Dortmund. The Black and Yellows conceded three when the sides met in the league phase and let in five against Real Madrid.

Raphinha and Lewandowski could fill their boots in this tie – Lewandowski’s 1.00 expected goals per 90 minutes in the Champions League is 0.14 higher than any other player left in the competition.

Kane faces an Inter team with the third-lowest expected goals against per 90 minutes in the Champions League.

The former Tottenham man is still worth considering at his current price, but we are wary of backing a Bayern team that seem to have been overestimated by the bookies. A bet on Kane is really banking on FC Hollywood making the semis.

Real’s Big Stars

Four goals over two legs against Manchester City brought Kylian Mbappe into top scorer contention. Vinicius did his damage in the league phase with a brace against Salzburg and hat-trick in an emphatic win over Dortmund.

Real are facing a steely Arsenal defence in the last eight. Carlo Ancelotti’s men are favoured to progress, however, after impressively making their way past City and Atletico Madrid over the last two rounds.

Despite the same goal tally, Mbappe is the superior betting option. Neither striker has been in the hottest of goal-scoring form in recent weeks. Mbappe’s expected numbers are in the same class as Kane, Haaland, and Lewandowski, though, while Vinicius is in the Darwin Nunez and Jonathan David range.

Longer Odds Options

Beyond the Real Madrid duo, we’re looking at Ousmane Dembele at 18s and Lautaro Martinez out at 50/1. Martinez has only scored six goals in the competition so far, leaving him with a five-goal deficit to Raphinha. Dembele has seven to his name and has been in phenomenal form since the turn of the year.

Both players are worth consideration at their current prices. If you fancy Inter to get past Bayern – who have conceded of goals in this competition – then Martinez becomes a fun longshot.

Dembele, facing Aston Villa, could find the net multiple times in the quarter-finals. PSG excelled against Liverpool and look like the dark horses ahead of the last eight – could this be the crowning glory in Dembele’s belated breakout?