Lamine Yamal Ballon d’Or Odds: Can Spain Youngster Claim Award?

Can Lamine Yamal defy the odds and win the Ballon d’Or award later this year? We look at his chances and assess his rivals for the accolade.

PSG forward Ousmane Dembélé is the overwhelming favourite to win the Ballon d’Or, according to the latest betting markets. Dembélé guided PSG to their first Champions League in dominant fashion and starred as Les Parisiens reached the final of the new-look Club World Cup.

Lamine Yamal, who has been a popular pick in bet builder betting since breaking onto the scene in 2023/24, has been tipped as a future winner of the Ballon d’Or. Yamal is the only other player shorter than 10/1 to win the honour.

Ballon d’Or Odds:

Punters can bet on the Ballon d’Or 2025 award at William Hill and here is the current state of the market:

• Ousmane Dembélé – 1/5
• Lamine Yamal – 4/1
• Vitinha – 10/1
• Cole Palmer – 20/1
• Mohamed Salah – 25/1
• Raphinha – 25/1
• Achraf Hakimi – 28/1
• Kylian Mbappé – 33/1
• Nuno Mendes – 33/1

What Are Yamal’s Ballon d’Or Chances?

Rodri, winner of the Ballon d’Or in 2024, named Yamal as a future Ballon d’Or winner at last year’s ceremony. It’s hardly the boldest prediction, considering the heights the recently turned 18-year-old has already reached.

Rodri said, “Lamine Yamal will win the Ballon d’Or very soon. I’m convinced of it. Keep it up, keep working hard, you’ll get there.”

Yamal won the Kopa Trophy – the award given to the best wonderkid in world football – 12 months ago. His ascension to the Ballon d’Or is a question of when rather than if.

As the odds suggest, though, he’s a distant second behind Dembélé. Yamal’s 21 goals, 26 assists, and a domestic double are a remarkable haul, but it’s probably not enough for him to become the first player under 21 years of age to win the Ballon d’Or.

Dembélé scored more goals (37) and starred as PSG won the Champions League. It’s not as straightforward as the best player on the European champions winning the award, but continental success certainly helps a player’s candidacy.

Yamal is likely to win the Ballon d’Or in the next three years, which would make him the youngest recipient of the award in its 70-plus years of history. Next season is a better opportunity, even if Barcelona don’t win the Champions League, with Spain arguably the pre-tournament favourites for the World Cup.

It is Dembélé’s award in 2025. He deserves the accolade, but unlike the 2010s, there will be more room for Ballon d’Or debate each year.

One Clean Favourite

Only two players – Viktor Gyökeres and Kylian Mbappé – have scored more goals than Dembélé this calendar year. He had a pair of assists in the Champions League final, scored against Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in the Club World Cup, and was integral throughout the UCL knockout rounds.

It took until his age-27 season, but Dembélé has finally arrived. Like Yamal, he was a teenage prodigy. Bursting onto the scene at Rennes, Dembélé had a short stint at Borussia Dortmund before injuries and general instability led to an underwhelming time in Barcelona.

A career of unfulfilled potential seemed inevitable when he scored six goals in 42 matches in his first season with PSG. The 2024/25 season brought a spectacular breakout with his goals per 90 minutes leaping from 0.18 to 1.09 in Ligue 1. His Champions League production erupted, too.

Rightly named Champions League Player of the Season with 14 goal involvements, Dembélé took PSG to heights Neymar, Lionel Messi, and Mbappé failed to reach, capped off by a historic drubbing of Inter in the final.

Honourable Mentions

Cole Palmer, Mohamed Salah, and Raphinha had brilliant seasons.

Raphinha had 64 goal involvements and was as important to Barcelona’s team success as Yamal.

Salah had the best year of a wonderful career, notching 60 goal involvements as Liverpool cruised to the title.

Palmer didn’t rival the numbers of others, yet he delivered a true statement performance in the Club World Cup final.

Potential Future Winners

Yamal will open as the football betting favourite for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. Pedri, Palmer, Jude Bellingham, and Vinicius Jr. are also likely to be in the reckoning.

With the World Cup looming next summer, players from nations with a realistic chance of being named world champion are serious contenders. This works against Erling Haaland, Salah, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Look out for Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, Désiré Doué, Gavi, Estêvão, and Xavi Simons as potential Ballon d’Or winners in the remainder of the 2020s and into the 2030s.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*