Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Hipop can rise to challenge in the Cesarewitch
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck looks over the ITV races on a super Saturday from Newmarket and York.
Check out William Hill’s new Each Way Extra feature
Newmarket, Saturday
FIRST CONQUEST may be the safest proposition at the prices in the TV opener on Future Champions’ Day (1:15pm). Although without the considerable potential of the two three-year-olds at the head of the market, he remains open to improvement judged on his excellent comeback at this level at Haydock, which was arguably a career best. He shown himself to be effective here before, and the prevailing ground will suit him better than most.
PIERRE BONNARD gets a narrow vote in the Zetland (1:50pm). He made a chunky step-up from his debut to his win at Dundalk last time, showing why he has Group One entries. He’s bred to stay very well and to be classy – his dam won the Nassau – and he looks a bit more straightforward and to be possessing of a bit more track craft than his two obvious main rivals.
PATHEIN ought not to be underestimated in the Autumn Stakes (2:25pm). His debut at Doncaster was pretty taking, pulling nicely clear with a very well-regarded rival of a pretty solid prospect in third, who has done nothing to dent the form subsequently. This admittedly looks a pretty tough today race, but the selection more than warrants his place in the line-up, and can get involved granted just normal improvement.
OXAGON has to be the play at the current odds in the Dewhurst (3:00pm). Campaigned like connections believe he’s a good one, he might have won the Champagne Stakes under different circumstances. As it turned out, the horse that rather ambushed him that day went on to win a Group One in Paris last weekend, so the form even as it stands looks pretty good. I’d expect him to be allowed to rock forward here and make use of his good stride, and he might just take a bit of stopping.
HIPOP DE LOIRE might have enough class to win the Cesarewitch off top-weight (3:40pm). Such a burden in a valuable handicap here will certainly be no barrier to rider Clifford Lee’s confidence, and I expect this horse to get a ground saving trip in behind the leaders from a really good draw. This is just his second try at this sort of trip – which he now looks to need – and there could be a big handicap in him before he rounds off his days in Cup races.
York, Saturday
LIGHTNING POLKA is well worth another chance in the Rockingham at York (1:30pm). Impressive on her debut, she was never on an even keel in very deep ground, but still finished off with a bit of purpose. This sounder surface should be much more like it, and she can bounce back.
CHAMPAGNE PRINCE may have his day in the good 10-furlong race at York (2:05pm). He looks to need this drop in distance, comes here in pretty decent nick, and has shown reasonable form here before.
ROUSING ENCORE might be able to take a hand in the Sprint Trophy (3:15pm). He’s run some of his best races here, and has come roaring back to form of late to the point where a five-pound rise might not be enough to stop him posting another career best. This is his time of year, and he can work himself into the money at big odds.
