Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 8 Predictions
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Sunderland
At the Stadium of Light this weekend, we see an intriguing matchup, as the Black Cats welcome a free-falling Wolves to Wearside.
Sunderland have transitioned to the top flight admirably, winning three of their seven fixtures to date, remaining unbeaten on home soil (W2, D1). In contrast, Wolves have only scored one goal and taken just one point on the road.
Barring a heavy opening-day loss to Manchester City (0-4), Wolves have been competitive throughout, except for perhaps Leeds (1-3). And the side is now unbeaten in three across all competitions, hinting at a revival. However, their biggest weakness appears to be game management, having failed to hold onto a lead in each of their last three Premier League outings.
On the flipside, Sunderland have been the complete opposite, proving themselves to be masters of the second half. An incredible 86 per cent of their goals came after the break, coupled with the most shots. They finish strong, and even if Wolves do take the lead, confidence is fragile, and a fightback cannot be ruled out.
Only Palace have a better xG percentage from free-kicks and corners, meaning the Black Cats’ biggest threat could be from the dead-ball, while Wolves rank 19th for xG conceded when facing a set-piece, and this may prove to be the real difference-maker.
Between the sticks, Robin Roefs is averaging over three big saves per match (3rd) – blocking around 80% of all efforts – which places him second overall in the Premier League for goals prevented (2.7).
Meanwhile, his opposite number, José Sá, sits bottom of the table (-3.9 goals prevented) with only a 31% big save percentage. With only two goals conceded at the Stadium of Light, Régis Le Bris will be looking for his side to bounce back following a disappointing loss at Old Trafford.
Crystal Palace
This fixture hasn’t been kind to Crystal Palace in recent seasons, and the Eagles will be looking to end a four-game goalless and winless run against Bournemouth. In 2024/25, the teams ground out hard-fought 0-0 draws, but this time, things could be very different.
Despite losing to Everton last time out – Palace were hoping to equal their longest unbeaten run at the Hill Dickinson (18) – they remain strong at home, with no loss in nine, with wins over Liverpool, Manchester City and Aston Villa already this year.
The side sits third in the table for xPoints, with an underperformance in front of goal being the only major issue. Palace have missed five more Big Chances than the next team (18), converting around one in four opportunities, with Jean-Philippe Mateta the biggest culprit, with a league-high seven misses. But in Adam Wharton, the Eagles have the best creator (5 Big Chances), and it only seems like a matter of time before Palace clicks into gear.
But in Bournemouth, you have a team also punching above their weight. And that is due in no small part to the form of Antoine Semenyo, who has been involved in 81% of their goals, earning him three Man of the Match awards already.
Overall, the numbers indicate a home win, giving Palace a 42% chance of victory. And if the side can fulfil their potential and match their underlying data – xG – 12.9 (2nd) and Shots on Target per 90 – 5.1 (2nd) – then Palace could be sitting as high as second before Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham resume their campaigns post-international break.
Burnley
Turf Moor hosts the battle of the promoted sides, and Burnley will be keen to press their advantage to move out of the bottom three as hopes of survival rest on the Clarets’ home form, with points needed to avoid being cut adrift, even at this early stage.
Overall, the numbers don’t look great. No side has faced more shots (131), with the highest xG against (13.6), while only West Ham have conceded more (15). Burnley has the lowest average possession in the league (35%), along with the lowest xG (4.94).
However, Leeds simply don’t enjoy playing away from Elland Road. They have the lowest xG (1.44) in away games, the lowest Shots (19), the joint fewest Big Chances (2), and they are winless in their six previous league visits to Burnley. The Yorkshire side also failed to beat The Clarets home or away in the Championship last season.
The home win could hinge on the form of Jaidon Anthony, who is expected to shake off the thigh injury that curtailed his minutes in game week seven. The Burnley forward has four top-flight goals and has been electric with Top 3 xGOT (Goals on Target), plus the second-highest goal involvement rate in the Premier League (71%).
Arsenal
The Gunners’ recent record against Fulham might surprise you. Arsenal have won just once in their last four meetings, but this weekend feels a little different with the side sitting atop the Premier League.
Mikel Arteta is a master of the London derby, losing only once in their last 18 Premier League clashes, and that was a shock defeat to local rivals West Ham in February. Their stats are title-worthy: only three goals conceded, four clean sheets, and 14 scored, in an opening set of fixtures that has pitted them against last season’s Champions, City, United, plus a trip to Tyneside to face Newcastle.
Fulham, on the other hand, appear to be lacking in quality and ideas. Their attack is decidedly average, producing Bottom-Half data for xG (7.18), Big Chances (11), Shots in the Box (23), and Key Passes (54). And injuries across their frontline only exacerbate the situation.
Defensively, Arsenal have been ruthless, allowing only 18 shots on target, the lowest in the league, combined with the least xGoals Conceded (4.35), all of which suggests the Cottagers could be in for a long night under the lights.
