Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Ascot Champions Day best bets
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck looks over Ascot’s Champions Day card, featuring five Group One races.
Ascot, Saturday
SWEET WILLIAM is just a hint of a bet in the Long Distance Cup (12.55). The balance of evidence suggests another payday for stablemate Trawlerman, but Al Qareem (who won’t be restrained this time) will give the favourite some hassle on the front, and that might give the selection a sniff in this small field. In addition, this seems to be the time of year when Sweet William ups his game by a pound or two. If that is the case again, and the favourite is in any way compromised, things should get pretty close.
ARDISIA has been a great friend to this column, and the affair isn’t over in the two-year-old contest (1.30). He’s about the pluckiest horse in training, and overcame a rubbish draw to run down and out game some very solid stakes performing two year olds in the big Redcar race last time. The superpowers are well represented here, but with unlikely superstars, and the selection can strike while the iron is hot.
LAZZAT looks a fair favourite in the Champions’ Sprint (2.05). His Jubilee win here from a top opponent remains the best piece of European sprinting form this season, and conditions look ideal for a repeat. On top of that, there’s not loads of obvious trailblazers, so he should be able to either dictate, or sit close to Art Power, who’ll provide pace up the middle. James Doyle opts for him over two other bona fide contenders, and I’d be confident in his judgement.
WEMIGHTTAKEDLONGWAY looks primed for a deserved big day in the Fillies’ and Mares’ (2.45). She made Minnie Hauk pull out the stops in the Irish Oaks, form which now looks all the better, while her comeback in Paris was full of promise. That should have primed her nicely for this, and she enters the race with strong credentials and in better form than Kalpana, and with more suitable ground than for Estrange.
CARL SPACKLER is my wild each way stab at the QEII (3.25). What I know of this horse from America is that he has huge ability, and I’ll happily forgive his two efforts here so far. He was way too keen at Royal Ascot with no time to get used to European racing, yet still ran respectably in the circumstances. At Goodwood, Shane Foley was at pains to settle him, but that meant he was disastrously positioned in a crawl at a track that he clearly hated. He rattled home, however, and he has now had a break and moved to the Gosdens, which should help massively. Add William Buick, and you’ve a recipe for a big run at a huge price.
CALANDAGAN is the first choice for the Champion Stakes (4.05). His record bears the closest scrutiny, with the key to him being an even gallop and the chance to finish off strongly. That sometimes makes him a hostage to fortune, and you’d want to see him delivered with one run rather than get into a scrap, but the percentage call is to have him on your side. This looks very likely to sort the wheat from the chaff, with the likes of Almaqam and Fox Legacy potentially involved for the early skirmishes behind the recognised pacemakers.
As such, I’ll also be backing ALMERIC, who is inexperienced but highly talented judged on the times he has run and the style of his wins. Oisin Murphy will play him late, and he could easily improve again to get involved.
SHOUT gets the shout in the Balmoral (4.40). There’s no way he’s done improving judged on his runaway win here last time, where his tendency to be slowly away was tempered by an extra furlong. The ground is going to be quicker this time, but he has plenty of form on a sounder surface, and the rider will have had his choice of plenty of these.
