UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane preview

UFC 321 kicks off on Saturday night, with Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Arena playing host to 14 mixed martial art bouts.

The headline contest comes in the heavyweight division as Tom Aspinall takes on Ciryl Gane. Aspinall is the favourite for the bout priced at 1/4, whilst Gane is the underdog at 3/1, let’s take a closer look at the big one.

The fighters

Tom Aspinall has surged to the top of the UFC heavyweight division with a mix of speed, accuracy, and confidence rarely seen in a man his size.

His next opponent is Ciryl Gane, one of the smoothest, most technical fighters the division has ever produced. It’s an intriguing matchup between two athletes who move like middleweights but carry heavyweight power, and it could define the direction of the division for years to come.

Aspinall’s rise has been rapid but deserved. His striking is crisp and efficient, and he blends it seamlessly with quick level changes and strong top control. He’s the kind of fighter who doesn’t need many openings to end a fight. once he lands clean or gets you to the mat, he tends to finish the job.

What makes him dangerous isn’t just power; it’s how fast he makes decisions. The one unknown for Aspinall is how he performs if the fight drags into the later rounds. Most of his UFC wins have come inside two rounds, so his gas tank and composure under prolonged pressure remain question marks.

Ciryl Gane presents a different kind of challenge. He’s easily the most technical striker in the heavyweight division, with elite footwork, range management, and timing. Gane doesn’t rely on one big punch, he chips away, using movement to control distance and frustrate opponents.

When he’s in rhythm, he makes even aggressive punchers look lost. But the big concern for Gane is his grappling. We’ve seen him struggle when taken down, and top-level grapplers have exploited that weakness before. If he’s improved that area since his previous title losses, it’ll show here, because Aspinall is likely to test him there early.

The fight

The opening rounds will be key. Aspinall will almost certainly look to pressure from the start, forcing Gane to move backward and defend takedowns. He’ll want to keep Gane guessing, mixing feints, body shots, and level changes to create chances to get the fight to the ground.

Gane will aim to stay light on his feet and avoid getting drawn into exchanges. His jab and low kicks could be his best tools to keep Aspinall at range and wear him down over time.

If the fight stays standing, Gane has the edge in pure striking skill and could start to take over as the rounds progress. But if Aspinall finds an early takedown or lands a clean shot, it might not last long. His ability to transition from striking to grappling is exactly the kind of threat that has given Gane problems in the past.

Aspinall is the heavy favourite and deservedly so – he looks good value to win in Round 2 at 3/1.