Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury best bets
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck looks over Saturday’s racing at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury with selections and analysis across the cards.
Cheltenham, Saturday
INOX ALLEN is taken to win the furiously competitive Cheltenham opener on Saturday (1.10). There are any number that could be given a chance here, but this one made a serious impression in first-time headgear at Perth and, while it has to be taken on trust that will work again, it is more likely forcing tactics over a shorter trip on better ground did the job. The Old course should suit well, and expect him to lead them a merry dance.
CONMAN JOHN makes a fair bit of appeal for the same stable in the three-mile novice (1.45). Ratings suggest that he needs a fair step up on his Kelso seasonal debut, but his useful bumper form tells us that he’s likely open to a lot of improvement, particularly for a good test of stamina.
HOE JOLY SMOKE can send another big prize the way of the Skeltons (2.20). Laid out for a big prize at Sandown last back end, the might of Mullins and the extended distance combined to kibosh him. But this is rather easier in every respect, and there remains quite a lot of mileage in his handicap mark. You’d have to imagine the stable had plenty to choose from.
MA SHANTOU looks really nicely weighted in the Pertemps Qualifier (2.55). He didn’t look at all out of place mixing it with Graded horses last year, doing pretty well to finish seventh in the Albert Bartlett. He was amongst the best of those that raced up with a pretty fierce pace, and didn’t back down when the going got tough. He is among the least exposed here, and his stable has made a bright start.
LORIKO might be capable of springing a minor surprise in the four-year-old hurdle (3.30). He was in amongst some very well connected and choicely bred juveniles in three runs in France last year, not beaten far each time. And while his stable debut was only so-so form-wise, he ran with loads of promise and as though with the next day in mind at Uttoxeter. That will have put him spot on for this, and his jumping looked highly assured for a novice.
WELCOME TO CARTRIES might reward connections’ patience in the novice chase (4.05). These owners have relatively few runners here, suggesting the trainer believes this a very good spot. And why not, given that he was far from disgraced against some seriously smart opposition in a couple of chases early last winter. He looked as though he’d give Handstands a fright at Sandown first time out, and he has to be a serious player if in that sort of form.
Doncaster, Saturday
FRANCISCO’S PIECE is a flyer at a massive price in the opening sprint at Doncaster (1.30). Frankly, the ground looks atrocious and very hard work, and this talented horse – tumbling in the weights – might finally have found ideal conditions combining with a winnable mark. He’s gone well here before too.
ACTION gets the nod in the William Hill Futurity (2.05). Like everyone else, I’ve been impressed by Hawk Mountain, but a closer reading of the form book suggests that Action’s third in the Royal Lodge matches the achievements of his stablemates, for all he hasn’t exhibited quite the same dash. But in this ground dash is not what is required, and his ability to stay really well and (probably) cope with soft as a close relative of Derby hero Lambourn earns him the vote.
FIGJAM is the pick in the William Hill Prospect Stakes (2.40). These are much of a muchness, but the selection could arguably have beaten today’s favourite when 200/1 at Ayr on just her second start. She’s bombed in since in a small race, and can get a good bit closer with more experience under her belt.
Newbury, Saturday
TIME TO TURN ought still to outclass his rivals in the Horris Hill at Newbury (3.10). He ran ok in the Jean-Luc Lagardere, weakening only late having made taking ground into the race off a very well dictated tempo. This is much easier, and he might be able to boss these at a track where he’s shown smart form.
ANCIENT WISDOM has been found a pretty good opportunity in the St Simon (3.45). He’s not quite matched the promise of his two-year-old career, but he’s still pretty deadly on soft and probably should have won on his comeback from a summer break. That should have tuned him nicely for this.
