Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 11 Predictions
One wrong pick, and you’re out… Chelsea are this weekend’s standout favourites, but who do you fancy in Final One Standing this week?
West Ham
After six games without a win, West Ham finally found their rhythm with a much-needed victory over Newcastle — and, crucially, a performance that bore the unmistakable imprint of Nuno Espírito Santo’s philosophy: compact structure, tactical discipline, and a team fully committed to the collective. That 3–1 win wasn’t just three points; it was a performance that hinted at a turning point.
And Burnley, at home, couldn’t have arrived at a better time, as West Ham look to make it back-to-back wins heading into the final international break of the year. The Portuguese manager has an excellent record against teams that typically occupy the lower spots in the Premier League table, with a strong Points-per-Game return.
But the Clarets are no pushovers… wins over Wolves and Leeds saw the side climb out of the drop zone, but statistically, they are hard to read. No team has had fewer shots (74), while only West Ham have created fewer Big Chances (11). However, with 12 goals scored, they are the biggest overperformers in the top flight (xG – 7.3), helped by having the league’s second-best shot conversion rate (16.2%).
But away from Turf Moor, their form remains concerning, particularly in terms of defensive data, where they rank 20th for xGC (11.8) and Goals Conceded (15), although they did take three points from a visit to Molineux last month. West Ham, buoyed by their first win since August, are firm favourites, and for what seems like an age, you can feel confident in backing them for the win.
Everton
Only one point and one place separate these two sides in the table, but recent form suggests Everton have the edge, with Fulham losing four of their previous five games; their only win came against a hapless Wolves side that played for almost an hour with ten men.
The Cottagers are another side that has struggled on the road, taking only one point from a possible 15, and the numbers suggest this malaise is more than just bad luck. They average two goals per game against, while in attack, they sit in the Bottom Half for all of the key metrics.
For Everton, the Hill Dickinson Stadium has proven to be a relatively happy hunting ground, with wins over Brighton and Crystal Palace – Spurs are the only side to leave with a victory. And in Jack Grealish, the Toffees have a player intent on proving his critics wrong. The Manchester City loanee has hit the ground running and is joint-second for Key Passes (15), Expected Assists and Chances Created (21).
Meanwhile, David Moyes has an exceptional record against Fulham, 19 wins, four draws, and only nine defeats over his many years at the helm. The Toffees’ boss also boasts a 57% win rate over Marco Silva.
Fulham welcomed six players back from the treatment room last weekend, but with most still working their way back to full fitness, Everton should have enough to match the data and take the win!
Chelsea
If there’s one constant this season, it’s that Chelsea continue to defy predictability. Enzo Maresca’s side have mixed moments of fluid brilliance with frustrating inconsistency, yet this weekend they host a Wolves team that is spiralling.
The Midlands club are now 14 Premier League games without a win, a run stretching back to 2024/25, and the sacking of Vitor Pereira this week has left the squad in limbo. Morale is low, and performances reflect a side devoid of confidence. Wolves sit joint-bottom for goals (7), failing to score in four of their five away league games this season.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have history firmly on their side in this fixture. They beat Wolves twice last season by an aggregate score of 9–3, and Stamford Bridge has been a fortress for this particular matchup, with Wolves winning just once in 11 Premier League visits.
Team news is favourable for the Blues, although Cole Palmer remains out of contention. Liam Delap is available following injury and suspension, and Joao Pedro, who scored his first goal in ten at Tottenham, revealed his fitness was improving after a problematic groin issue hampered his progress in recent weeks.
For Wolves, Rodrigo Gomes will not play again this year due to surgery, and Emmanuel Agbadou is suspended following his dismissal last time out.
All told, Chelsea are heavy favourites — projected with a 71% win probability, the highest of any Premier League side this weekend — and should make light work of a Wolves side in disarray.
Crystal Palace
The M23 derby rarely disappoints — and this one has all the ingredients to deliver another classic. Both teams have scored in all but one of their previous ten Premier League meetings, and recent trends suggest goals are on the menu once again.
Under Oliver Glasner, Palace have been transformed. The Eagles rank third in the league for xG difference per 90 and boast the highest xG per 90 overall. They attack with pace, precision, and confidence, particularly at Selhurst Park, where they’re averaging 2.16xG per 90 — elite-level numbers that underline Glasner’s impact.
Home advantage also counts for plenty. Palace are unbeaten in 11 home league games — their second-longest run in club history and the current longest in the Premier League. Remarkably, they’ve spent just 14.2% of total match time in a losing position this season — the lowest in the top flight.
Brighton, by contrast, have struggled defensively throughout the campaign. Just one clean sheet so far, and their away record is even more concerning: a combination of an underperformance in attack, while defensively, the Seagulls leak goals (10) far above their xG Conceded (6.7).
Injury-wise, Palace are close to full strength. Adam Wharton has shaken off a virus, although he isn’t quite 100 per cent, and Chadli Riad is back after several months on the sidelines. Brighton, however, remain short in key areas — Adam Webster is out for the season, and Joel Veltman could be a little rusty after missing the last six weeks. Kaoru Mitoma faces a late test as he struggles to overcome a foot problem.
Given Glasner’s impressive record — including completing the double over Brighton last season — the balance strongly favours the home side once again. Expect intensity, goals, and a confident Palace performance to round off this block of fixtures.
