Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 12 Predictions
The Premier League returns this weekend, and in doing so, the Final One Standing is back!
You can also enter the new ‘Beat Robbie’ league by 3pm on Saturday 22nd November, for the chance to win a guaranteed share of £50k!
Get your entry in by Saturday, 22nd November – whether you’re still in a league, knocked out or a new player!
Leeds United
Despite winning just once on the road this season, Villa head into this game as favourites… Their recent form has improved – 15 points from a possible 18 – but the majority of those points came at Villa Park, and the side sits in the Bottom Three across several metrics (xG, Shots on Target, Big Chances and Goals) away from home.
This should give Daniel Farke hope of ending a five-game winless run against their counterparts – stretching back to 2020 – as Leeds look to maintain a comfortable distance between themselves and the drop zone. Performances at Elland Road have been decent, but goal scoring continues to hamper their progress, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin the main culprit, returning less than half of his expected numbers.
Predicting which players will bang after an international break is always a tough call, with long travel, late returns, and possible fatigue all considerations in the selection process. But for the most part this season, availability has been reasonably stable for Daniel Farke, and with minimal disruption, we could finally see Leeds align with their underlying numbers to spring a surprise.
For the visitors, their issues run deeper than team news. The side is performing significantly higher than their numbers suggest, so much so that Opta has Villa in 19th position on their Expected Table, with only Burnley worse off. An overperformance at this level is rarely sustainable across a season, especially with a squad involved in European competition that is prone to picking up injuries.
Given the lack of quality in the final third, this is unlikely to be a classic. Leeds and Villa are the league’s two worst sides for Big Chance conversion, while both are near the bottom for Shot-Creating Actions.
The Mighty Whites need to get the Elland Road crowd behind them early on to make home advantage count.
Arsenal
The Gunners have the highest win probability of the week, but the uncertainty around team news complicates what should otherwise be a routine derby win. Mikel Arteta has seen the likes of Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori, and Viktor Gyokeres struggle during the break, while reports from Germany suggest Kai Havertz has suffered a minor setback.
However, even with the disruption, Arsenal are well-placed for three points. Defensively, they’ve been among the league’s best with seven clean sheets, and historically this fixture tilts heavily in their favour, with five of their last six Premier League meetings ending in wins and just one defeat at home in 32 attempts spanning 15 years.
Spurs are unbeaten away from home, but their underlying data exposes a possible fragility to their play. Their xPoints is roughly half their actual tally, and a -2.7 xGoal Difference suggests an overreliance on goalkeeper Vicario, who leads the league for xG Prevented.
The derby factor must be considered, plus the Gunners’ absentee list adds volatility to this prediction. However, while Mikel Arteta’s side should win, it could be a lot closer than anticipated.
Manchester United
United historically relish this matchup – with 42 Premier League wins against Everton – more than any other side… and at home, their dominance is even more evident – only one defeat in 32 league encounters.
Rúben Amorim has benefited this season from improved consistency in team availability. After a turbulent start, the Red Devils are beginning to show glimpses of the manager’s identity and structure. United are unbeaten in five league matches, with their form at Old Trafford particularly strong, winning every game since the opening-weekend defeat to Arsenal. This ranks them among the league leaders for goals (11) and xG (10.08).
Bryan Mbeumo has been pivotal to the recent surge, hitting his stride with five goal involvements during the unbeaten run, finally outperforming his xG. With the team now offering more stability, his output looks far more sustainable. Bruno Fernandes is another benefactor, delivering 13 Key Passes (2nd), 3 Big Chances Created (2nd), and 3 Assists (joint 1st) since game week seven.
The Toffees’ problems persist away from the Hill Dickinson Stadium, and the side is yet to register a clean sheet on the road, with only one win and one draw collected, against the backdrop of a −3 goal difference. With Jarrad Branthwaite and Nathan Patterson sidelined, David Moyes’ side arrives with more concerns than solutions.
The projection is straightforward: United’s home form, improved cohesion, and historical dominance make them firm favourites.
Chelsea
Chelsea are heavily fancied ahead of a trip to Turf Moor, a fixture they have consistently dominated in recent times. The Blues have scored four goals in four of their last five away meetings, winning six straight, while the hosts have won only once in 18 Premier League clashes, and that was back in 2017.
Enzo Maresca’s side have been one of the league’s most reliable away performers, and with three wins in five, their metrics closely align with results, a positive indicator of sustainability. Chelsea sit joint-top for away goals (12), and third for away xG. With Liam Delap and Joao Pedro fully fit, rotation options are available in attack, despite the absence of Cole Palmer.
The Clarets’ issues remain structural. While stronger at Turf Moor, they still carry the lowest home xG (2.84), with only five goals scored, again the top flight’s poorest output. They’ve struggled to generate high-value chances all season, and Chelsea’s defensive profile is well-suited to limiting low-probability speculative efforts.
Even accounting for their occasional inconsistency, the matchup leans heavily blue. Their attack is functioning, the squad is relatively fit, and the data strongly supports another comfortable result against a Burnley side that continues to struggle at both ends. Chelsea have the second-best win projection of the weekend, and barring unforeseen availability issues, they should extend their dominance in this fixture.
