Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 13 Predictions
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AFC Sunderland
Trips to the Stadium of Light are becoming an ordeal this season… with Sunderland turning their home ground into a fortress – the Black Cats are one of just five sides still unbeaten on their own patch.
And the numbers back this up – 11 scored, five conceded – with several high-profile scalps already taken. This isn’t a flash in the pan, and Sunderland are implementing a tactical plan that teams are struggling to overcome.
For Bournemouth, the timing couldn’t be worse. Their early-season resilience has evaporated, replaced by a run of form that borders on relegation territory – only one win in five. The Cherries have been poor on the road – conceding 16 times across six matches – and taking just 5 points from a possible eighteen.
Only one clean sheet in over two months tells a big part of the story, but the underlying data is even more worrisome. Over the opening six gameweeks, Bournemouth were punching well above their weight—third-best xG conceded (0.9 per 90) and three clean sheets, which had them sitting in sixth place. The structure was strong, the press coordinated, and the defensive line well-protected.
Then something broke.
Since then, the Cherries have posted the third-highest xG conceded (1.7), and they are the only top-half side with a negative goal difference. Individual mistakes have crept in, and the defence feels disjointed…
Saturday throws up a clash of styles in many ways. Bournemouth games are generally high-scoring – 39 goals already in 2025/26 (joint-second highest) – while the Black Cats’ matchups, by contrast, are typically a lot tighter, only 25 goals, which is the fewest in the top-flight.
Wilson Isidor is a player worth monitoring despite his modest returns. The forward has had nine shots from inside the box over the last four gameweeks… and given the Black Cats’ home form, he could be the beneficiary of a Bournemouth defence leaking good chances.
The predictive models give the visitors a slight advantage here, but the data often struggles to capture confidence, momentum and atmosphere. Sunderland have all three, and it’s hard to go against them.
Brentford
The Bees have developed a ruthless streak against newly promoted sides. Ten consecutive wins, scoring at least two goals in each of those victories, 28 in total. When a pattern becomes that consistent, it becomes a genuine trend.
Many thought this season would expose Brentford after a difficult summer – the loss of manager Thomas Frank, plus the departure of several high-profile players.
But instead, Keith Andrews has galvanised his squad, particularly at the Gtech Stadium. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have won more home games and scored more home goals this season.
Burnley arrive with the third-worst defensive record in the league and only two clean sheets—both against fellow promoted teams, and both at home.
And they aren’t just conceding, they’re conceding good chances, and often early. Their attack hasn’t compensated either—the Clarets possess the lowest xG in the Premier League (8.8) and are the only side yet to reach 100 total shots.
For a Brentford side that thrives against teams who defend passively and struggle in transition, this has all the hallmarks of a comfortable afternoon. Opta give the home side a 62.9% win probability, and there’s little reason to anticipate variance here.
Aston Villa
This fixture has traditionally been a tighter, more unpredictable derby. Since both sides returned to the Premier League in 2019, Wolves have taken six of the 12 meetings. But context is everything, and this season presents a gulf between the teams that recent history can’t mask.
The Villains’ underlying numbers at home haven’t impressed—they sit 17th for xG at Villa Park and own the sixth-worst home defensive xG—but those figures are somewhat misleading. Their performances in Europe have energised rather than exhausted them.
They have a 100 per cent domestic win record following midweek continental fixtures, and crucially, they face a Wolves side transitioning from Vitor Pereira to new manager Rob Edwards.
Wolves are winless in 12, having failed to keep a clean sheet this season. Big chance creation is minimal (7), with their attacking output often relying on individual moments rather than repeatable patterns.
Villa Park, meanwhile, remains formidable, just one defeat in their last 24 league games. Even when performances haven’t aligned with expectations, results have.
One player catching the eye is Matty Cash. From Gameweek 8, he ranks second among defenders for shots, has delivered five key passes, and has produced 0.7 xGI. With Ollie Watkins struggling to replicate last season’s influence, Villa have needed creativity and threat from unexpected areas. Cash has stepped up…
Villa are given the second-strongest projection of the weekend (72%), and it’s hard to argue with that.
Crystal Palace
This fixture used to tilt heavily in United’s favour, but recent meetings tell a different story. Palace have taken three wins and a draw from the last four league clashes, with the Red Devils blanking in each of those matches. The psychological shift is real.
Palace enter this weekend as one of the league’s strongest data teams—solid defensively, structured—and despite their shortcomings in attack (they are 3.5 goals worse off than the numbers suggest), performances have remained robust.
United, on the other hand, continue to struggle away from Old Trafford, with only one win on the road all season, the third-worst xG conceded (11.9), and zero clean sheets.
Their record in London is even more alarming—just three wins in their last 26 league matchups in the Capital -extend that to all away games, and you can make that one win in eleven. And there’s nothing to indicate a sudden turnaround.
Jean-Philippe Mateta is in resurgent form after a lacklustre start. The Frenchman has now scored four in his last five and ranks third in the league for xG since Gameweek 8. Palace are predicted to have a better than 1-in-2 chance (54.1%), and on form, this looks fully justified.
