Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 14 Predictions
Do you have any of the teams below left to pick? The deadline for the midweek Final One Standing is 7:30 pm on Tuesday!
Newcastle United
The Magpies come into this midweek clash with genuine momentum, having posted back-to-back league wins and finally converting substantial underlying numbers into positive results, much to the delight of football betting punters.
Opta metrics suggest the current table is slightly misleading, with Newcastle six places below their xPoints tally. Defensive lapses have cost them this season, but Eddie Howe’s side is trending upwards, particularly at home, with four wins from five at St James’ Park.
Spurs, however, are the opposite… with their results finally aligning with relegation-level underlying data. Since GW8, they rank nineteenth for xG and sit 7th from bottom for xGD.
Only Wolves are below them on form, and the side is no longer able to mask poor performances with overperformance. One clean sheet in nine highlights their defensive frailties, with supporters voicing their displeasure over recent results.
Psychologically, the contrast is stark. Newcastle’s unity around Howe is apparent, whereas Tottenham fans have turned on Thomas Frank — empty seats and dissenting voices adding another layer of instability. Recent history also favours the hosts. Newcastle are big favourites to extend a run of five wins in their last six, which includes a 12-2 aggregate across the previous three on Tyneside.
A strong midweek profile — ten straight wins — only reinforces a solid projection (54%) of a Newcastle win, with Spurs taking only one win from thirteen when slated to play midweek.
Brighton and Hove Albion
The Seagulls may have just one win in their last nine against Villa, but the underlying indicators point firmly towards a strong home performance. But do the sports betting markets agree?
Away from Villa Park, Unai Emery’s side sit 8th for actual output; however, Opta metrics suggest a huge overperformance, placing them in the bottom five for xPoints, with a -3.5 xGD on the road. They concede high-value chances…
Brighton, meanwhile, are thriving at the Amex Stadium, where the side are unbeaten in 10 Premier League matches – including wins over Manchester City and Newcastle – and hopes of making it four wins on the bounce are high.
Yankuba Minteh is the key for Brighton. Although tied with Danny Welbeck for recent goal involvements, his underlying creative metrics are way better, and the winger has been extremely unlucky not to provide or score more. Against a Villa side with only one away clean sheet this season, he could be the player to watch on Wednesday.
Nottingham Forest
Despite being under the stewardship of new boss Rob Edwards, Wolves continue to accumulate unwanted records. The side is still winless, and one of only four teams in Premier League history with one point or fewer from their first seven home games, and for the record, each one of those was relegated. In addition, evening kick-offs are another issue, with just one win in their last 17.
Forest, under Sean Dyche, are on an upward trajectory. A statement win over Liverpool recently signalled a reset, and since his appointment in October, the side has only lost twice in eight matches across all competitions.
Morgan Gibbs-White has been a major benefactor – eight shots in the box, three goals, two Big Chances and five Key Passes – and under the new regime, his penalty-area presence has risen significantly. I’m expecting a big performance on his former stomping ground despite slight fitness concerns.
The home side has shown glimpses of improvement under Rob Edwards, but with their confidence at rock bottom, an early goal would break Wolves’ spirit. Forest carries greater momentum and reliability in both boxes, and they should edge what is likely to be a tight contest.
Arsenal
The Gunners go into this London derby five points clear at the top of the table, with only one defeat from 13 Premier League matches and a goal difference of +18… And even without the likes of Gabriel Magalhaes and possibly William Saliba, both through injury, the side is likely to remain defensively resolute, with just seven goals conceded so far.
The head-to-head record strongly favours the hosts. In their last 10 meetings, Arsenal have won 7, with just one win for Brentford and two draws. At home, the Gunners haven’t lost to their visitors since 1938, while the Bees have only collected three points on the road this season, at West Ham last month.
This is a fixture Arsenal tend to dominate, averaging around 58 % possession, with a high percentage of their xG coming from dead-ball situations. Outside of the bottom five, only Bournemouth have conceded more goals (20), while Liverpool are the only team to stop Arsenal from scoring this season, and that was at Anfield.
This should be an exciting game, and in Thiago, Brentford have a striker bang in form, 11 goals so far… which represents more than half of his team’s output. But with 16 goals in six home matches, Arsenal should dominate on form and data.
