NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Drake Maye In Pole Position

Drake Maye put in another exceptional performance in the New England Patriots’ win over the New York Giants on Monday night. Maye is the narrow NFL betting favourite to win MVP ahead of Matthew Stafford.

With five weeks remaining in the regular season, it looks set to be a two-horse race between Maye and Stafford. A 6-6 record for the Kansas City Chiefs effectively takes Patrick Mahomes out of contention. Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 8-4, but Allen’s MVP chances have faded dramatically with losses to the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans.

Bo Nix has been nowhere near consistent enough to seriously contend, despite the Denver Broncos’ 10-2 record. Jonathan Taylor’s hopes were always slim given the lack of running back support in recent NFL MVP races.

Let’s take a look at the leading candidates for this award:

Drake Maye – 4/5

Maye leads the NFL in passing yards and completion percentage. He’s second to Sam Darnold in yards per attempt, with Darnold throwing four more picks than the Patriots’ second-year sensation. Mac Jones is the only quarterback with a higher on-target rate than Maye.

New England has won 10 games in a row. Maye has delivered countless highlight reel plays during that period, despite a receiving corps that isn’t stacked with eye-catching talent like some other quarterbacks have at their disposal.

With the Pats heading into a Week 14 bye and the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Arizona Cardinals, Maye’s position as MVP favourite is far from set in stone, but he’s all but guaranteed a top three finish.

Matthew Stafford – 5/4

Stafford has thrown seven more touchdowns than anyone else. Notably, he’s below league average in on target percentage, and sits joint-seventh in yards per pass attempt.

There’s an argument that Stafford’s numbers are bloated by the play of Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. The receiving talent certainly helps, but Stafford is still having a stellar season and leading the Rams to potentially the top seed in the NFC.

Two games against the Cardinals give Stafford ample opportunity to put up big numbers. Los Angeles will also be tested by the defences of the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks.

Dak Prescott – 14/1

Second to Maye in passing yards and trailing only Stafford in passing touchdowns, there’s no question Dak Prescott is having a phenomenal season. Prescott has the lowest bad throw rate in the NFL.

The Dallas Cowboys have won three games in a row, including seismic wins over the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chiefs, to play their way back into playoff contention. A 6-5-1 record is a hard place to win MVP from, though, with Prescott likely needing to win out to stand a chance.

Dallas is fifth in EPA per play on offense and tied-fourth in EPA per pass play. Prescott deserves immense credit for the season he’s having.

Jordan Love – 14/1

Jordan Love is only just above league average in on target rate. Nine starting quarterbacks average more passing yards per game. The Green Bay Packers being by far the best offense in EPA per pass play is the standout factor in Love’s candidacy, even with Green Bay riding a three-game winning streak.

Jalen Hurts is the only starting quarterback to have thrown fewer interceptions. Looking after the ball has been a key factor for Love, though very few of his individual stats are elite enough to put him in MVP contention.

Green Bay has four tricky games to come. It would be a surprise to see Love among the finalists for this honour.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*