Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 17 Predictions
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AFC Bournemouth
The Cherries’ early-season plaudits now feel a distant memory, with Andoni Iraola’s side winless in the league since October, a run stretching seven matches that has coincided with a marked regression in defensive solidity.
Bournemouth have managed just one clean sheet during this sequence, conceding soft goals at key moments while struggling to protect leads — an issue exacerbated by individual errors rather than systemic collapse alone.
The underlying data suggests their plight is not entirely self-inflicted. Over their last six league games, they have collected just three points from an expected points total of 10.07, highlighting how marginal moments have swung against them.
In attack, there has been a worrying underperformance of 3.48 goals versus expected goals (xG), pointing to wastefulness rather than a lack of chance creation. However, the more alarming trend lies at the back.
Defensively, Bournemouth have conceded five goals more than expected across the same period, and much of that variance can be attributed to goalkeeper Djordje Petrović. The Serbian has recorded a -4.5 xG prevented — among the poorest in the top-flight – with shots from central areas a particular concern. While confidence appears to be the issue, Iraola may be tempted to offer protection through a deeper block rather than making a change between the sticks.
From a fitness perspective, injuries are mounting, with influential midfielder Tyler Adams the latest player to enter the treatment room. And ahead of a busy schedule, opportunities to rotate in key areas may be limited, with fatigue a factor to consider over the upcoming period. But this continuity should help as they face a Burnley side in even deeper trouble.
The Clarets arrive on the south coast having lost seven consecutive Premier League matches, with an away defensive record that makes grim reading. Scott Parker’s side have already conceded 23 goals on the road, and their underlying metrics are equally damning. Over the last six matches, Burnley have conceded more xG (7.8) than any other side, with a high volume of Big Chances (8) given up.
Suspensions have played a role. Lucas Pires and Kyle Walker missed out last time, while Axel Tuanzebe continues to be managed following a problematic few years with injury. This lack of consistency is due in part to forced makeshift partnerships across the backline.
Given the data and squad context, Bournemouth are rightly favoured, with Opta projecting a 63.6% chance of a home win and high clean-sheet probability. For a side in need of confidence, this fixture offers an opportunity to reset.
Brentford
Wolves’ situation is becoming concerning. They are currently on a nine-game losing streak in the Premier League… and only three sides have ever reached double figures for consecutive losses in the competition’s history. Zoom out, and the picture worsens: Wolves are now 20 league games without a win, placing them among the worst runs the division has seen.
Summer departures, a managerial change, and fitness issues have contributed to that decline. Rodrigo Gomes and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde remain sidelined, while Emmanuel Agbadou has departed for the Africa Cup of Nations. Marshall Munetsi will not play again this year, and Yerson Mosquera is serving a ban this weekend.
Brentford, by contrast, arrive in a more positive mood despite their midweek Carabao Cup loss to Manchester City. They are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Wolves, although if there is a chink in the Bees’ armour, it is on the road, where they have won only once in eight, which includes losing their last four.
This match could present an opportunity for Thiago, who has failed to add to his 11 goals in December… Although this mini-drought is linked to a slight knock that is being managed, causing him to miss out midweek. His underlying numbers remain strong, and with Wolves conceding high-quality chances through central zones, Saturday could provide a much-needed early Christmas present if they can overcome their away-day fragility.
Crystal Palace
Elland Road has become a difficult place to visit in recent weeks, with Leeds now unbeaten in three Premier League matches. That said, the Eagles’ long-term away form demands respect. No side has accumulated more points than Palace in 2025, 34, a remarkable return built on defensive discipline and efficient game management.
However, there are warning signs that Palace are just beginning to struggle as the impact of European competition takes its toll. Following a Thursday night Conference League tie, the side has won just one of seven subsequent matches, with fatigue and rotation clearly affecting cohesion. Managing minutes will again be crucial…
The Eagles’ attacking inefficiency has also been a recurring theme. No team has a greater underperformance of xG in 2025-26, with Palace more than seven goals behind where the metrics say they should be. However, this could be mitigated, as both Leeds’ goalkeepers, Lucas Perri and Karl Darlow, have negative xG prevented figures.
Defensively, Leeds also offer encouragement to the visitors. Over the last six gameweeks, they rank joint-third worst for goals conceded (13), third worst for xG conceded (10.9), and sixteenth for shots conceded inside the box (58).
Palace will generate opportunities. While at the opposite end, the Eagles remain robust, boasting the third-best xG conceded over the last six matches, having kept three clean sheets. Dean Henderson has been exceptional, leading the league in xG prevented this season, and the data points towards an away win.
Aston Villa
The Villains’ record against United at home is poor — just one win in their last 26 encounters. But history feels increasingly irrelevant. Villa are transformed, and one of the Premier League’s most complete teams this season and only City have accumulated more home points in 2025.
Villa arrive in scintillating form, having won six consecutive league matches and nine straight across all competitions. Squad availability has been a key factor, with a relatively healthy squad to choose from for the most part, allowing consistency in both selection and tactical execution.
The Red Devils’ form tells a very different story. Just two wins in their last seven league games underline their inconsistencies, and the loss of Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo, two of their most influential players, to the Africa Cup of Nations is a blow. Bruno Fernandes remains at the heart of the creative hub, registering assists in each of his last five away league matches and contributing goals and assists in his previous two appearances.
However, the standout figure here is Morgan Rogers. With Ollie Watkins struggling for confidence, Rogers has stepped up, recording eight goal involvements in his last 11 league games. His energy and timing of runs have been central to Villa’s attacking fluency.
Given current form, fitness, and performance metrics, Villa are deserved favourites, and it would take a significant shift in momentum for United to buck that trend.
