Politics
Political betting odds: Starmer odds-on to resign in 2026
Keir Starmer is odds-on with William Hill to no longer be Prime Minister by the end of 2026, as the bookmaker release a series of updated political specials for the year ahead.
Starmer is 4/6 to step down next year, while US President Donald Trump is a much bigger 3/1 to leave office in the same period.
Starmer’s future in Number 10
Keir Starmer is 4/6 (around a 60% chance) not to see out 2026 as Prime Minister in William Hill’s Labour leadership exit year market. The Labour leader is a longer 4/1 to depart in 2027 and 13/2 for 2028, with 2029 or later also at 4/1, suggesting traders see next year as the most likely time for a change at the top of government.
Breaking that down further, the period of April–June 2026 – covering the Spring Budget and local elections – is the favoured exit window at 5/2. January–March is 8/1, July–September is 7/2 and October–December is 12/1, while 2027 or later is 6/5 for those who think Starmer will ride out any pressure and stay on.
If Starmer does move on, Health Secretary Wes Streeting is the 7/2 favourite to become the next Prime Minister, with former Deputy PM Angela Rayner at 9/2 and Nigel Farage 5/1. Andy Burnham (8/1), Shabana Mahmood (9/1), Ed Miliband (10/1) and Kemi Badenoch (12/1) follow in the betting.
Reeves and Trump markets
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is also rated more likely than not to leave office in 2026. William Hill make her 4/9 to exit next year, ahead of 2027 at 4/1, 2028 at 7/1 and 2029 or later at 8/1, suggesting expectations of further movement at the top of the government’s economic team.
Across the pond, Donald Trump is 3/1 to cease being US President in 2026, but 4/9 to still be in office in 2029 or beyond, indicating that traders currently expect him to see out a full term. He is also 7/4 to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, a price that shows how polarising but newsworthy his presidency continues to be.
Scottish elections and EU referendum odds
Closer to home, the Scottish National Party are heavy favourites at 1/7 to win the most seats at the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary elections. Labour are 6/1 to top the poll in Scotland, with Reform just behind at 13/2, while any other outcome is a distant 150/1.
As for another vote on Europe, William Hill rate 2026 as a 100/1 shot for the year of the next UK referendum on EU membership. That price suggests a fresh Brexit poll remains unlikely in the short term, even as debates over the UK’s relationship with Brussels continue.
William Hill spokesperson, Lee Phelps, said: “We could see more major changes in the political landscape in 2026 and with Keir Starmer increasingly under pressure, we make it odds-on that the current Prime Minister doesn’t see out the year in office. He’s 4/6 to resign before the end of 2026, with the period of April–June, encompassing the Spring Budget and UK local elections, the favoured time at 5/2 that we could see a change of leadership.
“Rachel Reeves could also follow Starmer out of office in 2026, and we make the Chancellor even more likely to depart in the next 12 months at 4/9.
“Donald Trump seems to be weathering the political heat better across the pond, and we make the POTUS a much bigger price at 3/1 to depart, while he is just 7/4 to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026.
“With the SNP heavily odds-on to win the 2026 Holyrood elections and Labour continuing to re-establish ties with the EU, another referendum on the UK’s EU membership could be on the cards in 2026, but it’s still a relatively long-shot at 100/1.”
