Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 22 Predictions

3 hours ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

Form swings, fatigue, and home records shape this week’s Final One Standing selections, while underlying data and team news highlight why these fixtures stand apart.

AFC Sunderland

The Black Cats’ return to the Premier League has been defined by resilience, structure, and a formidable home record.

Sunderland remain unbeaten in their first ten fixtures at the Stadium of Light, a run that places them just one match short of equaling the all-time top-flight record for a newly promoted side. For a team widely tipped for relegation, this consistency speaks volumes about both recruitment and coaching.

Meanwhile, Palace arrive on Wearside at a difficult moment in their season. Over the last six matchdays, only West Ham have accumulated fewer points, two from a possible 18, and last weekend, the current FA Cup holders were dumped out of the competition in the third round by non-league Macclesfield Town.

This downturn highlights a side that is struggling badly with rhythm, confidence, and physical freshness. Their last victory of any kind came in the Europa Conference League over a month ago, and the Eagles are now winless in eight.

Fatigue has been a defining factor. With limited rotation options, a congested fixture schedule has exposed a severe lack of depth in Oliver Glasner’s squad, and performances have visibly dipped as a result.

The early-season version of Palace, which averaged close to two points per game and were briefly involved in the title conversation, has been replaced by a mid-table side that has won just four of 15 matches.

Defensively, the regression has been stark. Palace recorded six clean sheets in their opening 12 league fixtures, conceding just eight goals. However, over the festive period, they managed only one shutout, with 11 against, numbers more commonly associated with sides fighting it out at the wrong end of the table.

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Sunderland, by contrast, have maintained a remarkably consistent level across the campaign. That steadiness is reflected in their league position, where they find themselves pushing towards the European places rather than scrapping at the bottom. Central to that has been their defensive output: only two teams in the league have conceded fewer goals.

At the Stadium of Light, the side has been particularly dominant, and Palace, with only one goal in four matches, could draw another blank. However, the data suggests that finishing (4.91 xG) and seven Big Chances — rather than creation — is the core problem.

Jean-Philippe Mateta has come under scrutiny, and the underlying numbers support his criticism.

The Eagles are the league’s biggest underperformers, having scored almost 12 goals fewer than the metrics indicate, and this poor return in front of goal has turned potential wins into draws and draws into defeats, creating frustration throughout.

With superior form and the backing of a home crowd, the balance of probability leans heavily towards Sunderland. On paper, it may still be framed as an unexpected result, but the underlying trends strongly point towards a Black Cats victory.

Form swings, fatigue, and home records shape this week’s Final One Standing selections, while underlying data and opponents in clear decline highlight why these fixtures stand apart.

Liverpool

History and current form align convincingly in the Reds’ favour. Liverpool have lost just one of their last ten home league matches against the Clarets, and since that defeat almost five years ago to the day, Burnley have been beaten in each of the six subsequent meetings, conceding 12, and scoring just once during that run.

And recent form suggests this trend is unlikely to reverse. Before the Clarets’ FA Cup win over Millwall, the side were winless in 12 games, as the injury list grew and players were lost to the Africa Cup of Nations. Liverpool, on the other hand, appear to be gathering momentum at a crucial point in the season.

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Florian Wirtz, after a measured start, is beginning to settle, registering three goal involvements in his last five appearances.

His underlying metrics have always been strong: he ranks third for successful final-third passes, eighth for key passes, and boasts the highest success rate for take-ons attempted in the league. And the German international could have a stellar second half of the season.

Defensively, the Clarets’ vulnerability offers optimism for the home side: 26 goals conceded on the road in 10 matches. And even without Alexander Isak and Mo Salah, Liverpool’s Goals For column should receive a welcome boost.

At 76.3%, Opta make Liverpool this weekend’s standout favourites.

Aston Villa

Few fixtures this weekend highlight contrasting trajectories quite like Villa versus Everton. Since the Villains’ return to the Premier League in 2019, the gap between the clubs has steadily widened.

Villa are unbeaten in all league meetings with Everton during that period, including four consecutive wins at Villa Park. The Toffees have also failed to score in eight of the last ten encounters.

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Villa are in formidable home form, having won their last 11 matches (all competitions), while Everton have just one win in their previous seven. Their recent 2-4 loss to Brentford at the Hill Dickinson Stadium was particularly concerning, exposing issues in midfield and defensive organisation.

Morgan Rogers has been central to Villa’s success. He is the top goal scorer (7) for the club and leads the way for goal involvements (11). His ability to drift between lines and exploit transitional moments could prove decisive.

Given everything I have outlined, I would expect another commanding performance from Unai Emery’s men as they look to maintain their push for a Champions League qualification spot.

Brighton and Hove Albion

The Seagulls have lost just once in their last six home league matches against Bournemouth, and the Amex Stadium has increasingly become a difficult venue for visiting sides. Despite the Cherries’ victory in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, their campaign has unravelled.

Since Gameweek 10, Bournemouth’s defensive metrics have been relegation-level. Over that 12-game stretch, they have conceded the most goals in the league (29), recorded just one clean sheet, and posted the fourth-highest expected goals conceded. Brighton, while not flawless at the back, are 16 goals better off, with five clean sheets.

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Kaoru Mitoma has timed his recovery from injury well – he has scored five goals against Monday night’s opponents, more than any other side.

At the same time, Yankuba Minteh ranks second only to Erling Haaland for touches in the opposition box this season, although the winger is likely to be on the bench at best following a dead leg. Yasin Ayari is another for the watchlist, with three goal involvements in four games, adding another layer of unpredictability.

Brighton have a better than 1-in-2 chance (52%) of taking the points, reflecting home advantage, and a defensively frail Bournemouth side that plays in the league for the first time since losing star man Antoine Semenyo.