Specials
Grammy’s Odds 2026: Olivia Dean Set for Artist and Album of the Year
With awards season approaching, attention is turning to the latest Grammy markets and where the biggest prizes are most likely to land.
Early odds paint a clear picture across the headline categories, with several strong favourites emerging in their respective categories alongside a handful of credible challengers. From crossover global hits to critically acclaimed albums, let’s check out the different Grammy categories and the betting markets.
Song of the Year
The Song of the Year honours the songwriters for their composition and the market has a clear frontrunner, with Golden from K-Pop Demon Hunters priced at a commanding 1/3.
The track’s global impact, cultural reach and songwriting credentials make it a heavy favourite, especially given the Academy’s increasing openness to crossover and soundtrack successes.
Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s Luther (5/1) remains the main challenger, offering lyrical depth and critical acclaim, while Bad Bunny’s DTMF (8/1) represents Latin pop’s continued influence.
Lady Gaga’s Abracadabra (12/1) is a left-field artistic contender, while Windflower (14/1) sits firmly as an outsider needing a late narrative surge.
Record of the Year
Unlike Song of the Year, Record of the Year leans more heavily into production, performance and sonic impact, which explains why Luther by Kendrick Lamar featuring SZA tops the betting at 4/5.
Its polished execution and commercial reach tick every traditional Grammy box. APT by Rosé and Bruno Mars (4/1) is the most interesting alternative, combining pop precision with star power.
Gaga’s Abracadabra (9/2) continues to attract support thanks to its bold production, while Bad Bunny’s DTMF (11/2) rounds out a competitive but clearly defined top four.
Best New Artist
The Best New Artist category looks close to settled, with Olivia Dean priced at a dominant 4/11. Her critically praised releases, industry backing and mainstream breakthrough make her a textbook Grammy winner.
Leon Thomas at 5/2 is the only realistic challenger, bringing songwriting pedigree and R&B credibility into the mix, after a breakthrough year for the American singer-songwriter.
Further down the market, Alex Warren (10/1) represents the modern streaming-era outsider, while Addison Rae (20/1) remains a long-shot whose nomination alone would signal a genre-blurring shift.
As it stands, Dean’s consistency and narrative give her a commanding edge over the rest.
Album of the Year
Album of the Year sees Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos installed as the 4/6 favourite, reflecting both its artistic cohesion and cultural resonance.
The Academy’s growing appreciation for non-English-language projects strengthens its position, with the Puerto Rican rapper and singer blending traditional Puerto Rican music with other styles. GNX by Kendrick Lamar (3/1) looms as the main threat, offering scale and ambition following it’s surprise release in November 2024, while Mayhem (4/1) appeals to voters who favour experimental edge for hugely popular artist Lady Gaga.
At 16/1, Man’s Best Friend sits firmly on the fringes for Sabrina Carpenter, likely requiring a major critical push to challenge the leaders.
