Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 24 Predictions

3 hours ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

This week’s selections are shaped by momentum, matchup dynamics and risk management as survival becomes the only objective.

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Nottingham Forest

Forest should be confident heading into their game against Crystal Palace, having never lost a Premier League match against the Eagles at the City Ground. The visitors are winless in 11 top-flight meetings with Forest, and that historical trend is reinforced by the stark contrast in current form…

The Eagles’ struggles show little sign of easing. Losing captain Marc Guehi to Manchester City, plus the news that manager Oliver Glasner will be leaving at the end of the season, has done little to stop the rot, with their last league win coming back in early December… this is relegation-level output.

Between Gameweeks 16 and 23, Palace recorded the joint second-worst expected goals conceded figure in the division, allowed the third-highest number of big chances, and shipped 16 goals (19th). Their attacking output has been equally alarming, with just four goals scored across their last eight matches, the fewest of any Premier League side.

Meanwhile, Forest have been revitalised since the appointment of Sean Dyche. Under his stewardship, the club have collected 20 points, the 11th-best return in the league during that period based upon a strong defensive platform. They rank sixth for expected goals conceded, fifth for big chances conceded and have kept five clean sheets, illustrating the solidity Dyche has instilled.

However, that defensive improvement has come at the expense of attacking fluency, with Forest often struggling to convert control into goals. But those offensive issues pale in comparison to Palace… Since Gameweek 16, the Eagles have recorded the fewest points, scored the fewest goals, suffered the most defeats and hold the worst goal difference in the Premier League!

Forest are unbeaten in their last three matches and, despite a relatively modest home win record under Dyche, the underlying data and broader context still favour the hosts (43.1%).

Manchester United

The Red Devils welcome Fulham to Old Trafford, knowing that history is firmly on their side. United have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League meetings with the Cottagers, and that dominance provides a strong backdrop to what could prove a tricky contest.

Fulham arrive in good form, having suffered just one defeat in their last eight league matches. The side are typically well-organised, resilient, effective in transition, and, in Harry Wilson, they have a player in arguably the form of his career with 10 goal involvements across his previous 11 matches.

However, the mood around Old Trafford has shifted dramatically following a recent managerial change, with Michael Carrick overseeing back-to-back wins against Manchester City and Arsenal. His appointment has sparked an immediate resurgence, and that new-manager bounce has reignited belief among supporters.

Bryan Mbeumo has hit the ground running since his return from the Africa Cup of Nations – 0.76 xGI per 90 – and his importance to the team cannot be understated. The Red Devils’ win rate dropped to just 20 per cent during his absence, but rises to 50 per cent when he is available. Over the past two seasons, only Mo Salah and Erling Haaland have registered more goal involvements, and his ability to stretch the opposition and produce decisive moments could be key on Sunday.

Opta likes the home side (51.7%), although this will be far from routine.

Sunderland

The Black Cats are the only unbeaten top-flight team at home this season, and their form at the Stadium of Light continues to be a major driving force behind a strong campaign. They have outscored opponents by two goals to one, boasting the fifth-best home record overall, while conceding just nine goals in their 11 matches.

Their defensive data is particularly impressive, ranking eighth in expected goals conceded, in contrast to the Clarets’ struggles. Burnley are winless in their last 14 Premier League matches and possess one of the league’s weakest defensive records, having conceded the second-most goals, the most big chances and the highest expected goals total overall.

Still, results and performances of late, draws against Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham, show signs that Scott Parker’s men are still up for the fight.

And this fixture could be decided late on, with Sunderland scoring more than half of their goals (58%) after the 61st minute. At the same time, Burnley have conceded seven goals in the 90th minute or later, pointing to an inability to see games out effectively.

Brian Brobbey could once again play a decisive role. The striker has scored three goals in his last four league appearances and, during that run, has averaged just over two shots in the box.

Aston Villa

Villa will be looking to maintain their excellent home record to keep the pressure on the leaders. Brentford are next to roll into town, and the Villains need to extend their unbeaten run against the Bees to continue their unlikely title push.

At Villa Park, the side has been outstanding this season – ranking third in the league with 8 wins from eleven – and, after a slow start, have accumulated more points than any other Premier League side from Gameweek 6 onwards.

On the other hand, Brentford have struggled away from the Gtech Stadium, having taken just 9 points from a possible thirty-three… only Wolves have suffered more away defeats.

Ollie Watkins enters the fixture in excellent form, with five goals in his last six league appearances, while during that run, he has averaged 3.23 shots in the box and 0.84 expected goal involvement per 90. The striker also boasts an excellent record against his former employers, scoring 6 goals in 7 league starts. In fact, Watkins has only scored more goals against Brighton and Arsenal.

Given the Villains’ consistency at home, and Brentford’s struggles on the road, plus the underlying data, the hosts are favourites to secure another three points.