Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 27 Predictions

2 hours ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

Gameweek 27 arrives with narratives forming at both ends of the table. Data meets reality. And, as ever at this stage of the season, context is king.

Final One Standing. It’s simple. If your pick wins, you remain in the game. Lose, and you’re out.

Aston Villa

There are fixtures where the underlying data aligns cleanly with the historical record. This is one of them. Villa enter this weekend with both momentum and precedent on their side.

They are unbeaten in their last six Premier League meetings with Leeds. More notably, under Unai Emery, the Villains have developed a ruthless consistency against promoted opposition — 18 Premier League games without defeat…

The real differentiator, however, is Leeds’ home/away split.

At Elland Road, Leeds have been competitive. The seventh-best in the league for xG conceded in home fixtures, and fifth for Big Chances conceded. Earning themselves six wins, a positive goal difference, and mid-table stability.

However, on the road, the profile collapses.

Bottom three for xG conceded, and 13th for Big Chances conceded, with just one win on the road, and a 13-goal deficit… But on a positive note, the side has only lost once in eight across all competitions, which includes draws at Stamford Bridge and Anfield. At the same time, they were unlucky to leave The Etihad empty-handed in November following a Phil Foden winner in time added on.

Villa have built one of the strongest home platforms in the division – only Arsenal and Manchester City have accrued more points this season (28). Individually, Morgan Rogers profiles as the key differential, with thirteen goal involvements, eight goals, and ten Big Chances Created.

The England international is staking his claim in Thomas Tuchel’s World Cup squad… Thirty-three chances created overall, combined with 34 shots in the box — these dual-threat metrics — creator and finisher — align with a player operating at the highest level.

And with a projected win probability of 66.2%, this looks to be one of the clearer calls of the weekend as Villa look to maintain their Champions League qualification push.

Brentford

Few clubs embody data-led recruitment and marginal gains better than these two. But right now, only one is converting process into points.

The Bees’ home form has been quietly elite. The Gtech Community Stadium has become a controlled environment of high-intensity pressing, structured set-piece routines, and consistent chance creation.

Brighton, by contrast, arrive in poor form: no wins in six, three straight defeats (all competitions), and just six league points in 2026 — the joint second-worst in the division over that period.

But interestingly, the Seagulls’ underlying data isn’t as bad as the results suggest… They are Top 4 for xG conceded during that spell, though this contrasts with their underperforming attacking metrics…

Brentford, meanwhile, sit top in the ten-game form table, and their balance between defensive organisation and offensive efficiency has been impressive. They look solid and remain difficult to break down.

Thiago ended a mini-goal drought – three matches – against Newcastle in GW25, and Saturday could be the perfect platform for the Brazilian to continue his standout calendar-year run.

Six goals in 2026 — the most in the Premier League over that span, with a 25% conversion rate. For context, Erling Haaland sits at 12.5% during the same timeframe. Small sample sizes apply, but efficiency at that level changes outcomes.

Even more telling: Thiago leads the league in pressures applied this season. That’s system buy-in, and his defensive work is translating into offensive reward.

Brentford are close to a 1-in-2 shot (48.2%), and given the Seagulls’ inability to convert decent underlying numbers into tangible results, the Bees’ marginal gains may prove decisive.

Chelsea

The Blues’ season has been contradictory—talent-rich, but inconsistent in execution.

No team has dropped more points from winning positions this season, suggesting in-game management (concentration) issues — whether tactical, structural, or psychological.

The side has benefited from the second-most penalties in the division, which can inflate attacking output without necessarily reflecting open-play dominance.

Home form is another concern. Tenth-best in the league and for a club with title ambitions, following significant investment, that’s underperformance.

Visitors Burnley arrive in genuine relegation trouble. The Clarets have conceded at least twice in each of their last eight away league trips to London sides, and only Wolves have a worse record on the road. Scott Parker’s men struggle to defend wide overloads and second-phase set pieces — areas where Chelsea tend to excel.

Historically, this is a fixture the home side tends to dominate, with just one defeat in 19 Premier League meetings.

All eyes will be on the recently returned Cole Palmer, whose output has been heavily penalty-influenced. Although, remove spot-kicks, and his creative metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Instead, focus your gaze on Joao Pedro, who has been quietly decisive since the start of the year: ten goal involvements.

Chelsea are the strongest favourites of the round (75.8%), but while their performance variance may introduce some risk, the Clarets’ inability to keep a clean sheet suggests a comfortable home win is the most likely outcome.

Liverpool

The complexion of this fixture has shifted dramatically since Forest’s managerial change. Under Sean Dyche, the side were structured, defensively resilient, and competitive. But the decision by owner Evangelos Marinakis to dismiss him has introduced volatility.

His replacement, Vitor Pereira, carries recent top-flight baggage. During his spell at Wolverhampton Wanderers, the opening 10 games yielded only 2 points, no wins, the fewest goals scored, the most conceded, and 0 clean sheets.

Their defensive structure was consistently compromised — particularly in transitional phases. And that is not the profile you want facing a resurgent Liverpool side regaining attacking rhythm.

While the Reds’ away record – just five wins – has been inconsistent overall, their recent uptick in attacking data is notable, with improved ball progression and final-third penetration. And a recent statement away win at Sunderland — the only side to beat them at home this season — shows confidence levels and belief is rising.

This one could be tight, but Liverpool are firm favourites (51%), and given Vitor Pereira’s historical defensive fragility, plus the Reds’ improved attacking metrics, the underlying numbers lean clearly towards the visitors…

Although a sneak preview of Forest, who play in the Europa League on Thursday, may help give a little further insight into how the team will perform this weekend.