Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle & Fairyhouse tips
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Saturday’s racing from Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle and Fairyhouse.
Kempton
GRENADIER JET, right off the bat, is one of my best bets of the day in the TV opener at Kempton Park (1.10). He’s been improving fast, but isn’t done yet on the evidence of his most recent run, undone only late by a demanding track and doing much the best of those ridden with restraint in a tempo-led affair. He’s a smooth traveller with plenty of form on slightly better ground on more speed-favouring tracks. This is a slight step up in grade, but he’s up to it, and his stable is going quite well now.
ONE HORSE TOWN is probably the percentage call at the prices in a slightly trappy looking Adonis (1.45). Precious Man looked quick here last time, while you can expect much better from Fantasy World than he produced last week. That said, the selection has already beaten the favourite, and has arguably built on that with two superb efforts at Cheltenham since. He’s pacy, tough and dead straightforward, likely to get his own way in front, and could take a bit of passing.
JAX JUNIOR is quite hard to oppose at skinny odds in the Pendil (2.25). He’s very effective going this way round, and is a bit more versatile tactically than his early career suggested. The breathing op seemed to have done the trick at Sandown, and this step up in distance shouldn’t be an issue. He may have most to fear from outsider Old Cowboy, who went like a pretty good horse here last time before falling.
MUSTANG DU BREUIL can earn himself a tilt at the Triumph Hurdle by beating his elders in the Dovecote (3.00). His form is harder to read than most, but he beat a very well regarded horse already rated 120 without coming off the bridle on his British debut, is closely related to three black type winners, and jumps really well. The standard here is not insurmountable, and he should be right in the mix with his hefty weight allowance.
SOUL ICON is a bit of a flyer at a price in the Ladbrokes Trophy (3.35). He was better known for his exploits over shorter distances, including when winning the Desert Orchid here, but remains unexposed over this sort of trip. The way he shaped at the January meeting, however, strongly hinted that he wanted a well-run three miles, and we know he thrives in a big field and off a strong gallop. On that running, he certainly has every but as good a chance as The Doyen Chief, and I love the booking of the hottest conditional around for seven pounds, Rian Corcoran.
Lingfield
VALIANT FORCE gets the nod in the first of the TV races at Lingfield (1.25). It’s all out there to see, but he’s tremendously consistent on the synthetic, has bags of natural speed, and seemed to run pretty close to a career best at Dundalk the other day in a very fast time. He might get the perfect trip here, too, sitting just off Democracy Dilemma while holding the rail.
SKY SAFARI might be a spot of value in the Winter Derby (2.00). There’s a bit more pace on here than you might imagine with five runners, with Boiling Point and Military Academy unlikely to allow Nebras the easy lead that he’s enjoyed of late. That will suit favourite Chancellor, but will also play to the strengths of the selection, the Winter Oaks runner-up who looks as though she still has way more to offer over this distance granted a proper gallop. Her dam and all her best relatives wanted at least this far.
Newcastle
DOM OF MARY looks well up to running a nice race in the Eider at Newcastle (2.43). He has improved a bit for his new stable, and possibly found the ground a little lively at Chepstow on Welsh National day. This extreme test will suit well, as he showed here earlier in the year, and I like the experienced James Davies on a lightweight in a long distance chase like this – he’s unlikely to be shooting his bolt too early.
Fairyhouse
GRANGECLARE WEST is a very tentative choice in the Bobbyjo (3.15). This is an almost impossible race to handicap, as most of them have been using the season to build up to the National without unduly damaging their marks. If we can take it on trust that they can flash a bit of their full ability now the weights are out, the selection should be able to outclass this lot on these terms.
