MMA
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Predictions and Odds
Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno returns to action in Mexico City against rising Irish prospect Lone’er Kavanagh in a five‑round main event.
William Hill has Moreno as a clear favourite, but the markets also respect Kavanagh’s upside after his rapid rise through the division.
Brandon Moreno (13/8 boosted from 5/4)
Moreno enters as the proven elite operator: a former two‑time UFC flyweight champion with wins over Deiveson Figueiredo and Kai Kara‑France and one of the most battle‑tested résumés at 125 pounds. At his best, he overwhelms opponents with pace, durability and chaining of combinations into reactive shots and back‑takes.
The concern is mileage and inconsistency. Moreno is just 5–5 in his last 10 bouts and is coming off a busy run of five‑round wars, which can create openings for a sharp, lower‑mileage opponent. Still, predictors lean heavily his way, and we make him 4/1 to emerge from this bout victorious. Going a step further, we’ve boosted him from 5/4 to 13/8 to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission.
Lone’er Kavanagh (7/4)
Kavanagh is the classic step‑up opponent: 9–1 as a pro, coming off his first UFC defeat but with impressive metrics in both volume and control. He actually outpaces Moreno on the feet, averaging roughly 4.2 significant strikes per minute with a better differential and strong accuracy from range. His takedown defence and clinch control numbers are also encouraging, suggesting he won’t be easy to hold down.
The question is how those stats translate against a former champion who pushes a much harder pace than Kavanagh has seen so far. This is a big jump in opposition quality and he’s yet to prove his cardio or defensive grappling over championship rounds, which is why he’s the underdog at 7/4.
Prediction
Reflecting on the betting market, it’s set up to be Moreno’s night, but our #YourOdds market also highlights some interesting props:
- Kavanagh to win & over 3 rounds at 9/4 – attractive if you expect a tight, technical decision.
- Moreno to win in rounds 1–2 at 16/5 – a nod to the possibility that his pressure cracks Kavanagh before the Irishman settles.
- Either fighter to win in round 5 at 14/1 – a long‑shot for those who see a war of attrition.
Everything about this match‑up points to a competitive first couple of rounds before Moreno’s experience, scrambling and five‑round know‑how begin to tell.
On the other side, Kavanagh is 5/1 to win inside the distance and 7/2 by decision. If he pulls the upset, it’s likely by staying upright, edging the striking exchanges and banking rounds rather than blowing Moreno away early.
Kavanagh’s speed and sharp boxing keep him live, especially early, but you could argue that asking him to out‑fight a proven championship metronome over 25 minutes is a big step.
Prediction: Brandon Moreno to win, with Moreno by KO/TKO or submission at the boosted 13/8 a tempting way to back the former champion in front of a partisan Mexico City crowd.
