Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Kelso, Doncaster, Newbury & Meydan tips
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Saturday’s racing from Kelso, Doncaster, Newbury & Meydan.
Kelso
HOMBRE DE GUERRA looks quite interesting in the TV opener at Kelso on Saturday (1.10). He his first run for a new stable (going much better of late) this afternoon, and is significantly down in class after two tough assignments this season in testing ground against high quality opposition. This is much more like his grade, and he’s come down a few pounds into the bargain.
PROTEKTORAT probably only has to jump round to win the Premier Chase (1.40). He’s miles clear on ratings and hasn’t shown any signs of deterioration this season.
MONTEMARES could be the answer to the Premier novice hurdle (2.15). He shaped as though he might give No Drama This End a fright at Newbury in the Challow, before fading late. He went like the second best in that race, which was a fair effort given his inexperience. If building on that, he is the one to beat down in distance.
QUAVISTE might well be giving the handicapper a sleepless night or two (2.55). He won a bumper last year that has worked out extremely well (2nd now rated 125, 3rd bolted up in a good race the other day), and has been brought along very softly over hurdles. His best effort was his most recent, and enabled him to run here off a mark that is surely only lent, given how smoothly he travelled against very respectable opponents.
BOTH BARRELS is a nice price again (3.30). He won gamely here at Christmas, and stuck at it very admirably at Haydock considering how badly he was hampered. He loves this track and should give it a good go with a more positive ride.
Doncaster
LIVINGONAPRAYER is a speculative choice in the mares’ listed hurdle at Doncaster (1.25). This race normally offers some of the cheapest black type around, but this mare is certainly bred to be ok, out of a half-sister to Gold Cup winner Sizing John. And her two hurdles wins have strongly suggested she wants a proper test of stamina. Her trainer is very good with this type of horse, and she can give a bold showing.
HOMME PUBLIC is surely the logical choice in the 2 mile handicap (1.55). He’s a whopping 27lbs better off with Brookie from their meeting in this last year and, while it’s fair to say that’s reflective of their career trajectories, the selection has been given some pretty bizarre tasks. Finally, he has the right race and conditions, and can bounce back.
KING TURGEON looks way overpriced in the Grimthorpe (2.30). He’s sliding back into much more manageable company, and ran perfectly well for a long way when we last saw him at Cheltenham. He’s sensibly been avoiding bad ground, and he has a very decent record off a break.
Newbury
MISTER COFFEY is probably the maddest selection ever, having not won a race since Boris Johnson was still in Downing Street (3.15). That said, this is a really rum race, and you couldn’t have confidence in any of these. Things you know about the selection are that he’s run well here, will like the ground and will stay the trip. He should place and, one day, you just never know.
BLOW YOUR WAD is the pick in the Greatwood Gold Cup (3.45). It’s a bit dangerous to take his last run literally, but the handicapper could have been much harsher, and there has to be a chance he’s improved for a change of scenery. Either way, he’s talented enough to take a hand here if he’s in the same mood.
Meydan
There some serious racing in Dubai on Super Saturday, headlined by the reappearance of REBEL’S ROMANCE, who has been found another lovely opening to begin his year (5.10). Meanwhile his stable mate TALK OF NEW YORK (6.30) could be a superstar in waiting. Neither will pay big, however, and I’d rather be combining them for betting purposes with the likes of the promising ALAKAZI (4.00), and HEART OF HONOR (4.35), who should get the pace set-up he needs.
